Yuliya Tymoshenko
(a former prime minister of Ukraine)
KYIV – For many
years, the European Union’s eastward expansion seemed unstoppable. But with
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin appears to have
succeeded in ordering a halt to Europe’s efforts to extend democracy, the rule
of law, and open markets throughout the continent.
The EU must not
kowtow to his demands. Ukraine’s fate has become Europe’s fate. Indeed, Putin
not only wants to stop European political, civic, and social norms from taking
root within Ukraine; he wants to roll them back in the Baltics, the Balkans,
and anywhere else in Europe made politically brittle by economic crisis and/or
demagogic populism.
The EU
Eastern Partnership summit in Riga can
and must demonstrate Europe’s determination to defend its unity, security, and
values in the face of Russian aggression. And it must do so in concrete ways,
not simply with quickly forgotten official communiqués for which the Kremlin
and its Ukrainian separatist proxies have only contempt.
Of paramount
importance is to make the new policy a true partnership among peoples. The
citizens of the partner countries must become the real beneficiaries if this
partnership is to become more than the inert agreement that it has been.
Generous EU commitments on mobility, aid to SMEs and entrepreneurs, and a vast
increase in educational opportunities are among the key ingredients that could
make such a partnership politically popular for a vast majority.
Ukraine should be
the centerpiece of any effort to revive the Eastern Partnership as a way to
attract the support of Europeans who remain outside the EU. Yes, the news from
my country remains bad. Thousands of our citizens are dead. Hundreds of
thousands are now refugees in their own homeland. The Minsk
II cease-fire agreement has failed
to restrain Russian/separatist forces.
Although Ukraine’s
economy is no longer in free-fall, as it was last winter, GDP has declined by a
quarter since Russian troops first invaded in February 2014. Official
unemployment now stands at over 10%, compared to 7.3% before Russia’s
occupation and annexation of Crimea. Our national debt is mounting by the day
to levels that inspired The Economist to suggest that we may
become the “Greece of the east.” Moreover, much of our economy remains in
separatist hands, and they, no surprise, are running the stolen assets into the
ground.
In the face of
such calamitous conditions, Ukraine’s government is a bit like the proverbial
Dutch boy who put his finger in a dike to stop the sea from leaking through.
Despite herculean efforts, more leaks continue to appear. The simple truth that
Europe must grasp is that we Ukrainians simply do not have enough fingers to
plug all the leaks, and thus rebuild our economy, on our own.
Despite the depth
of Ukraine’s plight, Europe cannot avoid taking up the challenge that Putin has
set before it. After all, if Putin succeeds in turning Ukraine into a failed
state with a frozen conflict embedded within it, he will seek the same outcome
all along the EU’s borders, from Estonia to Greece.
Fortunately, the
EU has a real partner in Ukraine, whose people’s devotion to Europe has been
tested by snipers in the streets of Kyiv and now by the Russian army. Their
courage, and their newfound political activism, has stiffened the government’s
backbone in implementing needed reforms and made it impossible for any
political actor in Ukraine to buck the pro-EU consensus. The EU can stiffen it
even more by demanding much greater clarity in the fight against corruption.
Yet, given the war
in the eastern Donbas region, the shattering of so much of our economy, and the
precarious nature of our government’s finances, the International Monetary Fund
and others are clearly asking too much of Ukrainians. The idea that Ukraine can
embrace the economic “shock therapy” that Poland pursued a quarter-century ago
is the type of cookie-cutter policymaking that resulted in the 2008 global
financial crisis.
That is why the
Eastern Partnership, if it is to be renewed, must embrace bold new initiatives
for Ukraine, and not try to reheat old policies designed for very different
circumstances. A recent
report from the Vienna
Institute for International Economic Studies provides some guidance concerning
what the EU should now try to do for Ukraine.
For starters, the
EU should help us create a more stable exchange-rate regime to overcome the
currency volatility that has wracked our economy since Russia’s invasion. And,
although fiscal consolidation is necessary, given the state of our economy,
Ukraine’s most vulnerable people are now enduring a hand-to-mouth existence.
They have nothing more to sacrifice. On the contrary, they need relief, and
Europe should insist that its programs, and those of the IMF, take their needs
into account.
Perhaps most
important for the long term, the EU must honor its commitment to the deep
free-trade and association agreement that Ukraine’s previous government refused
to sign in late 2013. After all, it was to secure that agreement that young
Ukrainians braved former President Viktor Yanukovych’s snipers, and are now
braving the might of the Russian army. To follow through would do more to
anchor Ukrainians’ confidence in their European future, and to convince the
Kremlin that it cannot succeed in rolling back European values, than anything
else the EU might do.
One clear way that
Europe can demonstrate that its association agreement with Ukraine remains
alive is to encourage investment in my country. Since Russia’s invasion, FDI
into Ukraine has collapsed, which is precisely what Putin wants. The EU can
demonstrate its commitment to Ukraine’s economic renewal by having the European
Investment Bank invest in a showcase infrastructure project, say improved rail
links to the EU.
The EU faces a
stark choice: a renewed Eastern Partnership or a renewed division of Europe.
The decisions that it makes, beginning at the Riga summit, will determine
Europe’s fate for decades to come.
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