By Ankit Panda
Delegates protesting against the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement hold up signs during the first session of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. (July 25, 2016).
Image Credit: REUTERS/Mark Kauzlarich
On Monday, U.S. President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement he has described as a “disaster” and the “worst trade deal ever.” Given the entry-into-force conditions in the TPP as it was signed by the 12 participating nations last February, there is no way TPP, in its current form, can take effect without the United States’ participation. (I’ve explained before at The Diplomat why U.S. participation is an absolute requirement for the TPP to take effect.)
Monday’s executive order wasn’t surprising. TPP’s fate was all but sealed when Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November 2016. His opponent in that election, Hillary Clinton, had also voiced opposition to the agreement, but certain analysts held out hope that Clinton could change positions once in office. Despite TPP’s demise under Trump, the future of free trade in Asia is far from over. What’s uncertain, however, is the extent to which the United States can aspire to regain the sort of strategic leverage and leadership an agreement like TPP, which notably excluded China and included high environmental, intellectual property, and labor standards (among other provisions), would have conferred.
Despite waning interest in the putative benefits of free trade and globalization in the West amid a surge in economic nationalist leaders, demand for trade liberalization persists in the Asia-Pacific. Accordingly, TPP has never been the only trade game in town. Though there are no other multilateral arrangements aspiring to the complexity of nontariff provisions included in the TPP, two arrangements are notable for at least including a comparably large collection of economies.
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