By Ankit Panda
Here’s wishing the Asia-Pacific a happy and prosperous new year. Watch these issues in the coming year.
Well, good news everyone — we made it through 2016. It’s somewhat cliched at this point to note that the year marked many-a-global-turning-point, especially with the surge of populist politics worldwide, from the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, to the successful referendum in the United Kingdom on the country’s departure from the European Union, to the ascent of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. In the Asia-Pacific, the year neither represented a catastrophic decline into instability, but several trends do presage a difficult 2017 ahead for the region. Without further ado, here’s a brief retrospective at several events that occurred in 2016 and trends that kicked off that will bear heavily on stability and instability in the year ahead.
North Korea tests multiple nuclear devices and 30-some ballistic missiles.
2016 marked the first year to see multiple nuclear tests in North Korea — one in January and one in September (both claimed to be of thermonuclear devices by Pyongyang). Similarly, we saw an unprecedented level of missile testing, particularly of North Korea’s intermediate-range delivery systems, including the Nodong, the KN-11 submarine-launched ballistic missile, and Hwasong-10 (Musudan) missiles. Furthermore, North Korea tested nose cones for atmospheric reentry, new solid fuel propulsion for its missiles, and launched a satellite launch vehicle in February. The message coming from North Korea all year has been clear: It’s march toward realizing an operational and reliable nuclear deterrent is progressing steadily. With every nuclear and missile test this year, Pyongyang acquired important know-how. Denuclearization, though still the goal of U.S. policy toward North Korea, appears increasingly unrealistic; with a new administration in Washington, the conversation may shift more explicitly toward containment.
Cold winds across the Taiwan Strait
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