Monday, November 21, 2016

The new special relationship: what does Putin want from Trump?


The unlikely love-in between the president-elect and a former KGB agent who built a career on hating America has spooked many US allies. And it raises serious questions – from the fate of Edward Snowden to whether GCHQ’s secrets are safe

Putin and Trump Russian dolls … the start of a diplomatic thaw? Photograph: TASS / Barcroft Images

It was, remarkably, their first phone call. Last week, on Monday, Donald Trump spoke to Vladimir Putin. According to the Kremlin, the conversation was warm. Putin congratulated the US president-elect on his sweeping victory. We don’t exactly know how they addressed each other, but you imagine it might have been “Vladimir” and “Donald”.


Both leaders agreed that US-Russian relations were “absolutely unsatisfactory”, as Moscow put it. Their two countries would now begin a new dialogue based on “equality, mutual respect and non-interference in the other’s internal affairs”. They would stay in touch and meet soon, the Kremlin said. Hours later, Russian jets resumed their pounding of Syria.

The scene at some point in spring or summer 2017 isn’t difficult to picture. You can see the cavalcade of oversized Chevrolet minivans sweeping into the Kremlin’s courtyard and parking up beneath a 15th-century cathedral with its glittering gold domes. The 45th president of the US will jump out and stride vigorously inside.

Trump and his entourage will pass a painting showing Russian archers slaughtering their enemies in medieval battle. Next, he will enter an impressive palace room, its gilding as flamboyant and blinged-up as Trump Tower in Manhattan. There, a man of surprisingly small stature will receive the new US president. Cue warm smiles and a handshake. Putin makes a point of keeping everybody waiting, usually interminably, but you suspect that for Trump he will be bang on time. Trump’s election victory is something Putin has fervently wished for, but scarcely thought possible. On the day of the vote, state media told ordinary Russians that the election was fixed, Hillary Clinton’s victory pre-ordained.

The nature of this first Trump-Putin meeting will shape international relations. It will either reassure – or further spook – a western security establishment already aghast at the way in which Trump has lavished praise on Russia’s unpredictable dictator-cum-president.

It’s easy to fathom what Putin might want from Trump. The Russian leader’s list of demands from America is long; his geopolitical grievances go back a long way. His relations with Barack Obama and George W Bush were torrid. (Probably the last happy moment was in 2001, when Bush said he had “got a sense of Putin’s soul”.)




No comments:

Post a Comment