BY
When Misha Saakashvili unsurprisingly quit as Governor
of Odessa on 7th November, something that had been evident since June and thus
a long time coming, whilst others immediately wrote post mortem regarding his tenure, the blog preferred to look
forward and not back.
Which hats would be
tossed in the ring that despite the transparent process (not public process)
would have President Poroshenko’s approval (as coincidentally under the new
process Governor’s of Kharkiv and Mykolaevskaya Oblasts went to Poroshenko
people and there is no reason to believe those coincidences would not continue
in a strategically and nefarious money channel like Odessa)?
As stated, “Alexie
Goncharenko is an obvious candidate, but he doesn’t want the role. He is
quite happy acting as President Poroshenko’s Deputy Faction leader in the
Verkhovna Rada. When speaking to him it is quite apparent he is clearly
enjoying the role and would not seek the Governor position by choice – at least
not now.
However, if President Poroshenko tells him he wants
him to become Governor (and thus he will win the process) it is likely he would
(begrudgingly) accept.
There are however other locals who are BPP affiliated
and who would be happy to throw their hat into the Governor of Odessa ring and
go through the transparent (not public) process – to probably emerge the winner
(if coincidences are to continue).
Both Messrs Alexander Potapsky and Misha Shmuchkovych
fit the BPP candidacy bill and are considered loyal.
Both of these candidates are deemed to be “Goncharenko
people”. Mr Potapsky is the current Speaker of City Hall (and becomes
acting Mayor if Mr Turkhanov is long term sick – or worse) and Mr Shmuchkovych
was acting Oblast Rada Chairman following Alexie Goncharenko’s departure from
that role when he entered the Verkhovna Rada.
For the record, the current Oblast Rada Chairman,
Anatoli Urbansky is also deemed to be a “Goncahernko man”.”
As no candidate from any
other party than the president’s seems likely to be allowed to govern such an
important region there were few other obvious choices – unless they came from
without and yet had loyalty to, and the trust of, President Poroshenko.
As such other names were highlighted and dismissed under this caveat.
The entry concluded “unless and
until those throwing their hat into the ring have done so and a major surprise
is among that number.”
Now cometh the first
(and perhaps only) surprise capable of keeping Alexie Goncharenko in Kyiv where
he (currently) wants to be and out of the Governor’s chair in Odessa (where he
currently would prefer not to be) if Mr Goncharenko is unable to advocate for
one of “his people” successfully before President Poroshenko.
It appears
that Yevhen Chervonenko has let it be known that should President
Poroshenko (transparent process aside) be amenable, he would take on the role
of Governor of Odessa.
Those outside of Ukraine
and the FSU/post Communist States will probably not have heard of Mr
Chervonenko – and thus it is perhaps worth writing a few preparatory lines
should he manage gain the necessary presidential blessing to succeed Misha
Saakashvili.
These lines are not
meant to be the basis of comparisons between the two men – readers of this blog
are far to erudite to put their faith and hopes in a singular politician.
It is institutions, process, structure that ultimately build sustainable
and consolidated governance. Practical and systemic central policy
implementation as an Oblast Governor is as important as the local initiatives
that fall within their limited powers.
Suffice to say in any
comparison, they are very different in their personalities, temperament and
methods of governance.
So what can be said
about Mr Chervonenko?
He is perhaps best known nationally as something of a
“petrol head” and a sporting champion of the rally car genre – a sport he took
very seriously and did very well at – retiring from competition only a few
years ago.
Interesting as that is,
a reader wants to know about his political and business history (which for most
Ukrainian public figures emerging from the Soviet collapse is inseparable).
Nobody reads this blog for commentary on sport.
He was a stalwart backer
of former President Yushchenko. When the USSR collapsed, he swiftly
became, and remains, one of Ukraine’s biggest freight operators/logistics
empire owners.
Back in the day he also
set up a drinks company called Orlan – which popular folklore would have a
reader believe actually sold Ukrainian beer in far more aesthetically pleasing
Polish bottles. That same folklore would have a reader believe there was
also a fair bit of smuggling via his logistics empire, beginning with red
caviar but swiftly expanding into other merchandise. There are also tales
regarding “AgroInvest”, embezzlement, and some questionable activities relating
to a “security firm” under his control during the Yushchenko epoch.
None of this, being folklore
has much, if any, hard evidence to back it up.
Nevertheless folklore is
not the same thing as myth.
Much more recently, only
a few years ago in fact, several criminal cases were opened regarding nefarious
activities, large scale fraud and theft regarding the Dnistra PSP project
(Criminal cases 4201411000000309, 12014100000001192
and 12013100150000333 refer) in which Mr Chervonenko and long-time
associates Aftanaziva Zenko and Igor Sirota feature. The opaque manner in
which those cases were closed per usual within the Ukrainian justice system,
does little to decide whether there was a lack of evidence, guilt or innocence.
If rumour is to be believed then the prosecutors were (handsomely) bought
off.
Anyway, as an Our
Ukraine MP and whilst circling within and being part of the innermost
Yushchenko orbit, Mr Chervonenko came to rub shoulders with other potential
financial backers preparing for a Yushenko bid for president.
Those
people included Petro Poroshenko, Mykola Martyenko, David Zhvania, Kislinsky,
Rzhavsky etc – all rather (in)famous. Some of those names
decided to back Viktor Yushchenko whilst others decided against. Clearly
Me Chervonenko was very much with Mr Yushchenko.
The outcome following
the inauguration of Viktor Yushchenko as President of Ukraine, was that Mr
Chervonenko became the Transport Minister in the Prime Minister Tymoshenko’s
government as part of the “presidential quota” of ministers, and remained very
much part of the Yushchenko inner circle.
Thus Mr Chervonenko and
President Poroshenko have known each other for decades – and both will be quite
aware of how each other operates. Mr Chervonenko has thrown his hat into
the Odessa Governor candidate ring – the presidential response is unknown, but
will obviously become apparent when a new Governor is eventually installed.
Bringing a reader to the
present day, Mr Chervonenko still enjoys easy access to parliamentarians.
His logistics empire is best known for the A2B
Direct brand. He is also forward looking, launching an
Uber-esque system for logistics/hauliers with some serious partners – Alpha
Bank Ukraine, Kyivstar, Vostok Bank, Unison Insurance, WOG petrol stations and
AsMAP. This system is set to expand into Belarus (where Mr Chervonenko
has a 51% stake in a joint venture with the Belorussian Government via SOE
Gomeloblavtotrans) and beyond.
Having “retired” from
rallying, albeit he will still rally, and having a business empire that can
probably run itself without his personal input, is it possible for him to put
these distractions to one side and become an effective, (probably business
biased – not necessarily a bad thing in a particularly mercantile oblast like
Odessa) Governor?
Prima facie he appears to be without any truly robust and
unbreakable ties to the existing elite of Odessa. Politically, Our
Ukraine to which he belonged is long since a dead party from which perhaps
former Mayor Gurvitz was the only “Orange” to make a significant impact in
Odessa.
When looking at possible
conflicts of interest, with a 30 year major logistics empire to his name, are
there any really significant contracts within Odessa that would or could
compromise him?
Clearly he has no
personal need to steal from the regional budget – he is already rich.
Thus should he do so then it would be because he chose to do so rather
than had to. A reader may be inclined – or not – to set aside the smuggling
folklore (and probable tax avoidance associated by extension) with a laissez faire attitude toward acts of the 1990’s/2000’s where almost
no business or political angels were born – yet the fairly recent Dnistra PSP
tale is certainly a cautionary one.
None of this currently
matters much as it remains to be seen whether he will be blessed/cursed with
the Presidential nod to succeed in the transparent selection process for the
vacant role of Governor, emerging as the next overseer of the region.
Nevertheless, his somewhat surprising interest in
provincial governance has now been declared. A hat has been thrown into
the ring and Mr Chervonenko’s interest has to be taken seriously.
(Thus far of the names
mentioned with regard to the vacancy, Misha Shmuchkovych would seem the
best candidate.)
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