Kiev is increasingly worried about the risk of a renewed war with Moscow.
KIEV — More than 200 military
vehicles — including tanks and missile carriers — flanked by ranks of troops
are being prepared for Ukraine’s largest-ever military parade on Wednesday.
The martial tone of Ukraine’s
independence day celebrations isn’t unexpected. Two years ago, the date marked
a large-scale offensive by Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine, while last
year, late August saw another upsurge in violence.
In Kremlin-annexed Crimea, Russian forces conducted
military exercises this week. Video footage showed soldiers and heavy machinery
making amphibious beachhead landings.
Fighting between Ukrainian
forces and Russian-backed separatists has escalated dramatically in eastern
Ukraine, and Kiev officials say that some 40,000 Russian troops have moved
close to Ukraine’s borders. Last week, Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president,
warned of the possibility of a “full-scale invasion on all fronts.”
Poroshenko has placed
Ukraine’s army on high alert and said he could introduce martial law if the
situation worsens further. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces reported their worst
month of casualties in a year.
Kiev worries that the spike in fighting is part of what could be a broader offensive. The
government says that in addition to the troop build-up on Russia’s borders,
Moscow is shifting fighters and heavy weapons into the breakaway Luhansk and
Donetsk People’s Republics. Russia announced it has moved a sophisticated S400 air defense
system to Crimea, with a range of more than 300 kilometers, to protect against
NATO “air hooligans.”
And then there are the Kremlin’s claims
that Ukraine carried out “terrorist” incursions into Crimea at the beginning of
the month, in an attempt to blow up key pieces of infrastructure on the
peninsula.
Kiev says this claim is a
flat-out lie. Ukraine was supported by Donald
Tusk, the European Council
president, who said his assessment was similar to Poroshenko’s, and that
Russia’s version of events was “unreliable.”
But what worries Ukrainian authorities
most of all is the escalation in the Kremlin’s rhetoric. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, said that he would “not let
pass” the alleged Ukrainian attack, and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,
promised Moscow’s response would be “exhaustive.”
“Putin’s comments … are somewhat ominous,
as Putin is not someone to make idle threats, and especially not this side of
State Duma elections in Russia, due on September 18,” said Timothy Ash, a
senior analyst at the Nomura financial investment group, in a research note.
Mulling
invasion
But would Russia actually invade? Most
analysts believe that such a move would carry too great a risk.
“Logically this seems impossible,” said
Paul Quinn-Judge, senior advisor for Ukraine and Russia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. “This would require Russia in essence to admit responsibility for the
eastern crisis — they continue to deny, all evidence to the contrary,
that their troops have played a decisive role — and could reinforce
Russia’s isolation.”
Two factors seem to be linked to the
Kremlin’s actions: The sanctions that the West has imposed against Russia for
its actions in Ukraine appear to be taking an economic toll, and the Minsk
peace talks, which seem to have hit stalemate.
Moscow insists that Ukraine implement the
so-called Minsk 2 agreement, hammered out in February 2015. In particular,
the Russians want Kiev to pass laws that would grant the breakaway regions
extensive autonomy, creating a loose “federal state” in Ukraine.
Poroshenko, however, is loath to re-open
the question of granting the two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine extra
powers. One year ago, when his plan was first debated, riots erupted outside of
parliament and three police officers were killed when a grenade exploded.
Still, even if Poroshenko manages to assemble enough votes to pass the
legislation, his proposals fall far short of what the Kremlin has in mind.
“Moscow is clearly frustrated that the
West is not pushing Kiev to implement Minsk,” said Quinn-Judge.
“Their loud complaints over an alleged Ukrainian military incursion into
Crimea seem to have been an effort to push Kiev’s foreign backers to
intensify their pressure on the Ukrainians to move on Minsk.”
However, he adds, this seems not to have
achieved the desired effect.
The
Russia conundrum
Truth be told, no one has a clear idea
what Russia’s intentions are — which has been pretty much the situation since
the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis. This is also very much part of the
Kremlin’s game plan.
“Calling President Putin these days is
increasingly difficult and has been since the annexation of Crimea, then the
Russian military intervention in Donbas, and on to Syria,” said Ash. “On all
these occasions the Western Russia-watching establishment failed to call
events.”
“Perhaps it is fair to say that we should
now expect the unexpected from Putin,” he added.
Still, an invasion or
comprehensive military offensive seems a less likely scenario at the moment. In
addition to leading to a tightening of Western sanctions, Russian troops would
face a tough fight and significant casualties, which could lead to an outcry
within Russia itself. Ukraine’s military is a much more lethal force than it
was when the crisis started two years ago, and its troops have fought the
Russian-backed rebels to a standstill.
And even if a Russian push
into Ukraine were to succeed, Moscow would be left with the almost impossible
task of controlling a large amount of land and a hostile population.
Western diplomats, speaking
off the record, say that the likelier aim of the recent increase in tensions is
an effort to destabilize Ukraine. Then, if Russia decides to subsequently
dial down the pressure, this could be seen as a concession by Moscow, which the
Ukrainians would be expected to match.
So far none of this seems to
be working. The war continues, the sanctions are still in place and Moscow has
not created a federalized Ukraine, which would allow it to extract itself from
the conflict.
“A frustrated Kremlin is,
obviously, even more dangerous and unpredictable than usual,” said
Quinn-Judge.
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