Ukraine and Russia stand once
again on the brink of open war. After weeks of elevated violence in the
separatist Donbass, Russian president Vladimir Putin has accused Ukrainian forces of armed incursions and
plotting “terrorist” acts in Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. While a border
shootout seemingly did occur, its circumstances are murky. Ominously, Russia
appears to have exaggerated the incident as a pretext for renewed military
threats.
For now, it seems unlikely Mr
Putin would really want to risk fresh conflict, with all its dangers of broader
escalation. After all, in his geopolitical stand-off with the west, some things
seem to be moving in his favour. Turkey, after its failed coup, is again veering towards Moscow. In the US, Mr Putin has a
Republican presidential candidate — albeit a currently faltering one — who has
praised him and suggested Moscow should be allowed to keep Crimea. The EU has been rattled by the Brexit
With parliamentary elections
looming next month, however, Mr Putin might have decided some military
theatrics were required to distract domestic attention from a stagnant economy
and cast himself once again as the nation’s irreplaceable defender. His
manoeuvrings, including troop build-ups in both Crimea and Donbass, may be
aimed, too, at distracting from celebrations on August 24 marking 25 years
since Ukraine’s independence declaration from the Soviet Union.
Equally worrying is Mr Putin’s
effective withdrawal from talks with the leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine
— the so-called Normandy format — which produced last year’s Minsk accord on a ceasefire in east
Ukraine. The flawed agreement had been stalled for months, not least because
Kiev has failed to deliver on commitments to constitutional changes giving a
degree of autonomy to breakaway eastern regions. That gave Moscow an excuse for
failing to fulfil its own obligations, including withdrawing its forces from
east Ukraine and returning control of the border to Kiev.
But the Minsk accord at least
provided a channel for dialogue, and had reduced fighting in the Donbass in the
past year. Mr Putin’s withdrawal from the Normandy talks blows a hole in the
diplomacy surrounding Ukraine.
The Russian leader may be
seeking to extract concessions, such as promises of relief from western
sanctions, to bring him back to the negotiating table. He may seek to draw the
US, in the dying days of the Obama administration, more formally into the
Ukraine talks, in a way he has long craved.
The EU and the US — whose
reactions to Mr Putin’s sabre-rattling this week have been oddly muted — should
be wary of such manipulations. Russia’s president does not hold the whip hand.
Despite some signs of EU splits, transatlantic unity on sanctions has proved surprisingly durable. Nato has found the will to
respond to Russia’s aggression by basing forces for the first time in the
Baltic states and Poland.
The west should make
absolutely clear to Mr Putin that further military action in Ukraine will
trigger tighter sanctions that could tip Russia’s ailing economy back into deep recession. It should stress, too,
that the Minsk accord remains the framework for resolving the Donbass conflict
— and for easing sanctions on Moscow.
Western leaders are
confronting multiple challenges, from Islamist terrorism and the migrant crisis
to rising nationalism. But the Ukraine situation remains the biggest threat to
European peace since 1945. As long as Mr Putin’s provocations continue, they
must be ready to preserve unity and leave no doubt that further aggression
against his neighbour is not in his interests.
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