Russia plays a dangerous hand in Ukraine conflict

Ukraine and Russia stand once again on the brink of open war. After weeks of elevated violence in the separatist Donbass, Russian president Vladimir Putin has accused Ukrainian forces of armed incursions and plotting “terrorist” acts in Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. While a border shootout seemingly did occur, its circumstances are murky. Ominously, Russia appears to have exaggerated the incident as a pretext for renewed military threats.

For now, it seems unlikely Mr Putin would really want to risk fresh conflict, with all its dangers of broader escalation. After all, in his geopolitical stand-off with the west, some things seem to be moving in his favour. Turkey, after its failed coup, is again veering towards Moscow. In the US, Mr Putin has a Republican presidential candidate — albeit a currently faltering one — who has praised him and suggested Moscow should be allowed to keep Crimea. The EU has been rattled by the Brexit

With parliamentary elections looming next month, however, Mr Putin might have decided some military theatrics were required to distract domestic attention from a stagnant economy and cast himself once again as the nation’s irreplaceable defender. His manoeuvrings, including troop build-ups in both Crimea and Donbass, may be aimed, too, at distracting from celebrations on August 24 marking 25 years since Ukraine’s independence declaration from the Soviet Union.

Equally worrying is Mr Putin’s effective withdrawal from talks with the leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine — the so-called Normandy format — which produced last year’s Minsk accord on a ceasefire in east Ukraine. The flawed agreement had been stalled for months, not least because Kiev has failed to deliver on commitments to constitutional changes giving a degree of autonomy to breakaway eastern regions. That gave Moscow an excuse for failing to fulfil its own obligations, including withdrawing its forces from east Ukraine and returning control of the border to Kiev.

But the Minsk accord at least provided a channel for dialogue, and had reduced fighting in the Donbass in the past year. Mr Putin’s withdrawal from the Normandy talks blows a hole in the diplomacy surrounding Ukraine.

The Russian leader may be seeking to extract concessions, such as promises of relief from western sanctions, to bring him back to the negotiating table. He may seek to draw the US, in the dying days of the Obama administration, more formally into the Ukraine talks, in a way he has long craved.

The EU and the US — whose reactions to Mr Putin’s sabre-rattling this week have been oddly muted — should be wary of such manipulations. Russia’s president does not hold the whip hand. Despite some signs of EU splits, transatlantic unity on sanctions has proved surprisingly durable. Nato has found the will to respond to Russia’s aggression by basing forces for the first time in the Baltic states and Poland.

The west should make absolutely clear to Mr Putin that further military action in Ukraine will trigger tighter sanctions that could tip Russia’s ailing economy back into deep recession. It should stress, too, that the Minsk accord remains the framework for resolving the Donbass conflict — and for easing sanctions on Moscow.

Western leaders are confronting multiple challenges, from Islamist terrorism and the migrant crisis to rising nationalism. But the Ukraine situation remains the biggest threat to European peace since 1945. As long as Mr Putin’s provocations continue, they must be ready to preserve unity and leave no doubt that further aggression against his neighbour is not in his interests.

Original