BY
August is a month that in recent years brings with it increased difficulties born of The Kremlin for Ukraine. This combined with a major sporting event, which has also coincided with Kremlin shenanigans fairly frequently over the years would perhaps prompt a reader to expect a difficult few weeks ahead for Ukraine. Therefore the entrails of the Rio Olympics in August perhaps do not read particularly well for Ukraine.
T’will get worse in August when politicians holiday and sporting events in Rio distract. https://t.co/mDBfkLf44K— Nikolai Holmov (@OdessaBlogger) July 19, 2016
The 28th July witnessed its first “August surprise” a few days early – albeit perhaps not the surprise it should/could have been. President Putin signed a decree ending the Federal District of Crimea and merging it into the Southern Federal District.
Southern District in Blue (less Crimea)
The more astute observers may have predicted such a move based upon a previous decree placing the Southern Military District and Crimea under the command of Colonel General Alexander Dvornikov following his recall from leading the Kremlin’s Syrian campaign.
Col-Gen Sasha Dvornikov Takes Over Russia’s Southern MD – Not without implication for Ukraine https://t.co/anOPEG9G8R via @JamestownTweets— Nikolai Holmov (@OdessaBlogger) July 27, 2016
A matter of consolidating military command and control, and also public administration, by moving it away from the peninsula itself and placing its power centers within internationally recognised Russian territory. The result being occupied Crimea now squarely falls within both military and administrative control of the respective civil and military Southern Districts of the Russian Federation based in Rostov-on-Don.
The reasoning behind the move has been cited as being necessary to “improve governance” – which is entirely plausible (although perhaps not the real reason for canceling the separate Crimean status when assimilating Crimea into the Southern District control apparatus) considering the exceptionally poor governance and administrative abilities displayed by the current “authorities” since 2014.
As yet the repercussions of the Crimean assimilation into the command structures of the Southern District, both military and civilian remain to be seen – perhaps the forthcoming Duma elections will provide some indication.
For sure whatever grubby political deals had been previously arranged within the peninsula may have to be renegotiated with those now in control from Rostov-On-Don. Alternatively, perhaps those in Rostov-On-Don have an entirely different plan for the elites within its newly acquired administrative territory.
Either which way, and at the very least, there will now have to be accommodation for the “rent seeking” expected by those within the Rostov-On-Don machinery. Money flows from “rent seeking” will have to be, at least in part, redirected. Organised crime structures too may need to seek new accommodations within the power centers of the Southern District.
For Ukraine and the West, the question is now what to do about Crimean sanctions – a far simpler matter when it remained a distinct stand-alone administrative centre post the illegal annexation. There are now questions to be asked and answered as to whether they will extend to those within the Southern District’s that will undoubtedly violate the sanctions imposed regarding Crimea specifically.
For those “western” capitols already wavering regarding sanctions, this additional complication may prove to be too much – albeit it already seems unlikely 2017 will conclude witnessing a continued unity within the EU Member States. That said, the issue of sanctions specifically applied to Crimea have never been subject to wobbles – the issue of wobbles has always related to the sanctions that were imposed that are not Crimea specific but caused by the on-going Kremlin actions within the occupied Donbas.
This change of Crimean circumstance will perhaps muddy the waters somewhat.
A reader may ponder what August will yet further bring – for the month of August rarely heralds anything good, but rather a deliberate concentration of ill-deeds from The Kremlin in recent years.
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