BY P.Z.
FEW places reveal the anguish of a frozen conflict better than the 180km
long buffer zone between the internationally recognised Republic of Cyprus and
the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). In Nicosia, the
island’s divided capital, barbed wire and sandbags separate a fashionable café
from an abandoned bookshop. The former opened last year. The latter closed in
the summer of 1974, when Turkish troops invaded the north of the island
following years of ethnic bloodshed and a Greek Cypriot coup.
Deeper in the
demilitarized zone, a flock of sheep graze along the runway of an old
international airport, a cavernous time capsule littered with broken glass and
forty years of bird droppings. An airplane rusts nearby. The scene does not
inspire much hope. But analysts believe that a solution to the Cyprus dispute
may be more likely now than at any time in the past decade. What has changed?
Reunification talks between the Greek south and the Turkish north started
less than a year after the Turkish invasion. The closest they came to
fruition was in April 2004, when a plan brokered by the United Nations was put
to a nationwide referendum. (Turkish Cypriots backed the deal. Their Greek
neighbours rejected it by a three-to-one margin. A week later, Cyprus entered
the EU as a divided island, with the north effectively frozen out of the bloc
and recognized by only one country, Turkey.) The election of Mustafa Akinci as
president of the TRNC in the spring of 2015 breathed new life into the peace
process. Both Mr Akinci and the Greek Cypriot leader, Nicos Anastasiades, now
say that a settlement is possible by the end of the year. The Eurasia Group, a
consultancy, puts that likelihood at 60%. The islanders themselves are
less optimistic. In a recent poll, 62% of Greek Cypriots said reunification
seemed no closer today than one year ago
Many of the pieces needed for a solution are in place. Mr Akinci and Mr
Anastasiades, having met at least 25 times, report that consensus is within
reach in several areas, including governance, property, and the application of
EU law in the north. Turkey, which has enough problems to deal with inside its
own borders, has publicly backed an agreement. Without Cyprus on board, Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s government cannot hope to unlock stalled membership talks with
the EU. (Mr Anastasiades stresses he will “never” drop his veto on the
negotiations “unless Turkey gives some signs that they mean business.”) The
changing regional energy map also favours a deal. Greek Cypriots know that
reunification might be their only chance to market the island’s offshore gas
deposits, possibly through an Israeli pipeline to Turkey (assuming those two
also manage to reconcile). “If we have a solution, we will be able to exploit
our natural gas,” says one former negotiator. “If not, nobody knows how Turkey
will behave.”
Yet the road to a deal remains mined with misgivings and disagreements over
territory, power sharing, and security guarantees. In the economically stunted
north, any agreement will have to allay fears of a flood of Greek Cypriot
capital and underrepresentation in the governing bodies of a united island. To
be palatable in the south, it will have to ensure property restitution and the
withdrawal of the 40,000 Turkish troops stationed in the TRNC. Another hurdle
is the cost of a settlement. Even with a mix of remedies, including
reinstatement and property swaps, compensating the 160,000 Greek and 40,000
Turkish Cypriots who abandoned their homes in the 1970s will cost billions of
euros.
There is fear that the momentum is ebbing. The talks have already slowed
ahead of a May 22 parliamentary vote in the south. In the north, Mr. Akinci
faces potential pushback from a newly formed cabinet headed by hardliners. An
increasingly unpredictable Turkey may yet throw a wrench in the works.
“The
longer the talks go on, the greater the chance that we could see problems
arise,” says James Ker-Lindsay at the London School of Economics. After four
decades of talks and spilled ink, Cypriots have reason to hope for the best and
prepare for the usual.
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