Putin's Strategic Mistake: Use Of Syrian And Iraqi Refugees As A Weapon Against NATO

Anders Corr

President Putin of Russia is against a strong European Union, and a strong NATO. The Kremlin likely took part in sniper fire that killed Ukrainian pro-EU demonstrators in 2014. Putin took advantage of the Greek financial crisis of 2015 to sow disunity in the EU. 

And in 2016, he is enabling Syria’s Assad to target civilians so they flee to NATO countries as refugees. Since September 2015 Russia itself utilized targeted bombing of civilian areas in Syria, including hospitals, and provides intelligence for bombing in Iraq. Prime MInister Al-Abadi of Iraq has welcomed Russia to launch airstrikes in Iraq.

Russian airstrikes in Syria have killed almost 1,400 civilians up to January 2016. A quarter of the one million refugees entering Europe last year are from Syria. The rate of refugee flight from Syria is increasing. NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Philip Breedlove, said Tuesday that Putin and Assad are purposefully bombing civilians so refugees cause trouble for Europe. He estimates up to 1,500 foreign fighters have returned to Europe with the flow of refugees — needles in a haystack, but needles nonetheless.

Let’s leave aside the humanitarian and war crime concerns of using refugees as a weapon. Those arguments will have little effect on Putin, who regularly ignores international law.  If Putin is using refugees as a weapon against Europe, he is making a strategic mistake.

The large Syrian and Iraqi population in Europe that fled Putin’s bombs will be a powerful interest group that could help steer Europe away from its (relative to the U.S.) pro-Russian sentiment. Currently Europe is much friendlier to Russia than is the U.S., because European trade with Russia is much higher.

We have seen how small interest groups can drive foreign policy on certain issues — for example the effect of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on U.S. policy towards Israel. Millions of new E.U. citizens fleeing Russian bombs in Syria and Iraq could start anti-Putin political interest groups in the E.U. once they get residency. Refugees in Europe are already politicizing, including use of nonviolent civil-disobedience.

Yes, some terrorist needles in the refugee haystack will be terrorists and could cause trouble in the E.U. But the haystack will light a fire under E.U. foreign policy against Russia, and could cause a much more militarized response to Putin and Assad in Syria, for example no-fly zones, or safe zones for refugees in Syrian territory. The E.U. refugee interest group could go beyond fighting Putin in Syria and Iraq, and target his other interests as well, for example Crimea, Eastern Ukraine, and defense of the Baltics. 

These refugees will be unlikely to support lifting economic sanctions on Russia, while Putin is bombing their communities in Syria and Iraq. Greece and Hungary, two countries that in 2015 were particularly friendly towards Russia, are bearing the brunt of refugees. This has hurt their relations with Moscow. While Prime Minister Orban has maintained friendly relations with Moscow, there are signs of dissension within his ruling coalition. Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, recently supported further NATO enlargement. For Putin, those are fighting words.

Refugees fleeing Syria and Iraq are mostly ending up Turkey, which is increasingly averse to Putin’s Russia. Before the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey last November, President Erdogan of Turkey was friendly towards Russia. Many worried that Putin’s influence on Erdogan could turn Turkey away from democracy and towards a more authoritarian orientation. This would have moved Turkey further from its goals of accession to the E.U., and could have pressured it out of NATO — major policy wins for Putin.

After millions of refugees fled into Turkey from Putin and Assad’s scorched-earth strategy against Sunni rebellion, however, a primarily Sunni Turkey is changing its tune. Turkey recently shot a Russian fighter jet out of the sky, and has mooted ideas, with Saudi Arabia, of inserting ground troops into Syria to create a safe zone for refugees. This could bring Turkish troops in direct conflict with Russian troops, triggering Article 5 and bringing NATO into the bilateral conflict.

Putin’s relatively small and degraded conventional forces would do badly against NATO’s large and modern military. Despite Putin’s nuclear sabre rattling, he cannot welcome the prospect of a broader conflict. His weak response to Turkey’s downing of the Russian fighter jet proves that he wants to avoid escalation with NATO.

The refugees dispersed by Putin and Assad are in direct contradiction to the goal of maintaining peace with NATO. Forcing millions of refugees into NATO countries will create pressures in Europe to respond with better military defenses not only against Putin’s use of refugees, but against Putin’s threat to the Baltics and Eastern Europe.

Original