Vladimir Putin is trying to cash in the gains of the biggest military wager
of his career.
Russian forces have helped Putin’s Syrian ally #Bashar_al-Assad drive back
rebel forces after five years of fighting. The momentum clearly established,
the Kremlin gave the green light to an agreement with the U.S. and other powers
on a partial cease-fire and humanitarian aid shipments due to take effect this
week.
For #Russia, the deal averts a collapse of the peace talks, which keeps
alive a chance to solidify Assad’s position and mitigates the risk of an
escalation of the conflict with U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The U.S.
wants to step up the fight against Islamic State, while Europe is looking to
stem the worst refugee crisis since World War II and alleviate a rising
terrorist threat.
Putin’s military gamble in Syria -- Russia’s biggest operation outside its
borders since the Cold War -- has given him the negotiating power he
sought, said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa director at Eurasia
Group, a consultancy.
“There’s recognition that the Russians now dominate the agenda in Syria and
the Western approach is to yield to Russia,” Kamel said.
If the Feb. 12 agreement in Munich holds, it could ease Russia’s tensions
with the U.S and the European Union, whose sanctions over Putin’s actions in
Ukraine are deepening his country’s longest recession in two decades after an
oil-price collapse.
Immediate Doubt
But the fate of the deal was thrown into doubt almost immediately. On
Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov suggested that the U.S. is
reneging on the agreement and put the chances of success at less than 50
percent. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, addressing the meeting separately,
demanded an end to Russian bombing of groups opposed to Assad.
The Syrian rebels were also wary of the bargaining. Riad Hijab, who
represented the opposition at the Munich conference, said the agreement
amounted to the U.S. giving up on the goal of removing Assad.
“Our people has been abandoned by the international community and has not
had leadership, specifically by the United States of America,” Hijab said.
More Troops
If Syrian government forces and Iran and Russia don’t respect the
cease-fire commitment, the U.S.-led coalition is ready to send in additional
ground troops, Kerry said in an interview with Dubai-based Orient News TV
broadcast on Saturday. Saudi Arabia will send a number of warplanes to the Incirlik
airbase in Turkey’s south, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said at
the weekend. Saudi officials said they could also send troops if necessary.
Lavrov urged the U.S., which has refused to work with Russia in Syria, to
“finally” start cooperation at a military level to create a “joint front” in
the fight against terrorism.
“I am almost sure that the cease-fire won’t work and there will be more
negotiations and more cease-fires,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the
Moscow-based Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, a research group that
advises the Kremlin.
Fighting Terrorists
Under the agreement, Russia won’t even have to give up its military
involvement and the offensive could go on in key areas, such as around the
besieged rebel-held city of Aleppo, said Julian Barnes-Dacey, a senior policy
fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. While only Islamic State,
the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and other United Nations-listed terrorist
groups are exempt from the cease-fire, Russia may argue that Nusra’s links to
some of the rebels justifies the strikes, he said.
Rebel groups “have to prove they are ready to break with the jihadists, not
just in words,” Alexei Pushkov, head of the Russian lower house of parliament’s
foreign affairs committee, said in an interview in Munich.
The U.S. and Russia early this week will chair a meeting in Geneva to
decide which areas of Syria can be targeted by air strikes.
Russia is counting on Assad’s control of more territory giving it leverage
against Europe, a Russian official said, asking not to be identified to discuss
internal deliberations. The EU will review its sanctions in June, while the U.S. measures remain in place until repealed.
Assad’s troops this month virtually encircled Aleppo, the biggest remaining
insurgent bastion and once Syria’s most populous city, after they cut off the
main supply route used their opponents from Turkey. Syrian army forces --
backed by pro-Iranian fighters and Russian warplanes -- have also set their
sights on Idlib, a city controlled by Islamist rebels to the west. The rapid
advance provoked a storm of criticism by the U.S. and its allies, which accused
the attacks of worsening the humanitarian situation.
Republican
Senator John McCain criticized the Obama administration for bowing to Russian
pressure, warning in Munich against “legitimizing their actions in Syria,”
which he characterized as “a disaster in the making.”
‘Cash In’
For
Russia, the decision to opt for a cessation of hostilities also shows an
acknowledgement that pressing on with a full-scale military offensive would have
risked provoking a backlash, according to Lukyanov. Assad’s position is already
so much stronger than it was even six weeks ago that the balance of power has
shifted decisively in his favor, he said.
“You
have to cash in your gains at the right time,” Lukyanov said. “Or you end up
facing huge risks, direct confrontation with the Turks and a whole new
situation on the battlefield.”
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