Putin's new Empire

By Teresa Welsh

The Russian president has plans beyond Ukraine

 2010, President Barack Obama declared a "reset" on U.S. relations with Russia, to reverse what he called a "dangerous drift." But six years later, the two countries are engaged in what some have described as a new Cold War. 

Washington is trying to squeeze Moscow with economic sanctions in response to its actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and Russia is undermining international efforts to bring about the end of the Syrian civil war by deposing Bashar al-Assad. On the eve of a ceasefire agreement, U.S. news spoke with Agnia Grigas, author of "Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire" and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council about Russia's President Vladimir Putin's goals in the region and why relations between the two powers have deteriorated. Excerpts:

Did the world's response to Russia's annexing of Crimea influence Putin's calculation of getting militarily involved in Syria's civil war?

Crimea has not been the only pass Putin has received. I think he also received a free pass for the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, a first attempt to redraw post-Soviet borders by trying to support the two separatist territories of Georgia. After Crimea, we also have to consider the conflict in eastern Ukraine. 

Likewise, the West certainly critiqued Russia's support there for the separatists and actually Russian direct military involvement and issued sanctions and so on. Still, you can say that Putin received a bit of a pass there as well. In terms of Syria, it's a little bit unique because Syria is not in what was traditionally perceived as Russia's direct sphere of influence. So I would say that his moves here are getting more ambitious and more aggressive.

Should Russia be trusted to uphold the ceasefire agreement in Syria?

I'm a little skeptical and I think many people are because of Russia's past actions in terms of ceasefires, like we've seen in Ukraine as well. Oftentimes it just seems as if this is just a tactic on Russia's side to try to buy more time or to try to strengthen its particular position. I'd be surprised that Russia would really hold a ceasefire until it felt that it had established its goals in a particular conflict.

Will Putin ever abandon his stance on keeping Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria?

I don't think Putin is necessarily committed to Assad as an individual or as the leader of Syria. He's more committed to maintaining a regime [there and] he's also committed to making sure the Russian naval base there is maintained. A likely scenario would be not if he maintains the whole of Syria under his influence or tries to take over the whole of Syria, but a particular territory of Syria that would be under Russian control.

 What are Putin's ambitions in Eastern Europe?

Eastern Europe has been historically an area that Russia sees as its traditional or inherent sphere of influence: Countries like the Baltic states, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, the Caucasus. Russia will continue trying to maintain its influence in these regions. It will try to stir up separatism or ethnic tension wherever they can because it really benefits Russia – it creates instability in the countries, like we've seen in Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova. It hinders these countries from their integration with the West. If the countries have unresolved territorial integrity, then it makes it more difficult for them to seek European Union or NATO membership. In the end, it is the Russian government's goal to prevent further integration of these countries into Western and trans-Atlantic organizations.

Have international sanctions done anything to deter Putin?

International sanctions have certainly hurt the Russian economy and they've certainly left a deep impact and some of the effects of that we'll see in the years to follow, but it doesn't mean that it's really altered Putin's polices. We've seen no change, clearly, in Crimea. In terms of eastern Ukraine, potentially the sanctions have tempered more aggressive expansion into other parts of Ukraine. It's not so easy to differentiate the effects of the sanctions versus from other factors.

Why did Obama's "reset" on Russia fail?

The reset did have some successes in its early days, but successes in areas of common interest. Underneath there was potentially a lack of sufficient understanding of truly the divergent interests of the United States and Russia, especially in relation to Europe in the post-Soviet space where since the 2000s, the regime of Vladimir Putin has consistently tried to regain influence and has even tested and tried to regain territories. This deep conflict of interest and a different world view was the real culprit of this trouble of getting reset.

Are we inanother Cold War?

Analysts and commentators have mentioned the Cold War [scenario] since the mid 2000s, since the Georgian war. But I think today we have seen a much deeper deterioration of relations. 

I wouldn't call it a Cold War because it's not really a global ideological conflict – it's more a localized struggle for influence and territories. Or on the part of Russia, trying to regain influence and territories in areas where they feel like they're losing it. This is certainly the worst spell of relations with Russia we've had since the end of the Cold War.

Does Putin care what the rest of the world thinks of him?

He may act like he doesn't but he really does, but maybe in a different way. Putin and the Russian government would like Russia to be perceived as a great power, if not outright a super power. This is what the Russian public would also like to see. Putin does care what the world thinks. He would like to have more of a seat at the table with the big boys and more influence, but on the other hand he is not willing or he doesn't care enough about the values aspect. He doesn't care whether the world thinks Russia is a democracy or if it has rule of law or if it respects human rights values and so on.

NATO is strengthening operations in Eastern Europe. Will this contain or provoke Putin?

I personally don't buy the argument of provoking, although that sometimes is echoed in Moscow, that NATO is continuously provoking Russia. Many of the steps we've seen in Crimea, in eastern Ukraine, in Georgia, in violating the airspace of the Baltic states, these are tactics and moves that haven't been really provoked by NATO.

Now, will NATO contain Russia? 

In light of Russia's revisionism of the post-Cold War order, a strong NATO presence in Eastern Europe and an effort to contain Russia's further adventurism is the right approach for the United States and its allies.

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