BY
Several times over the past few years, since December 2014 when Prime
Minister Yatseniuk originally and rightly suggested the post of a Vice Prime
Minister responsible for European Integration, has the absence of the post
creation been mentioned in passing. It is going to be mentioned again –
but not in passing.
The Prime Minister indeed offered, the then and currently still
non-existent post to the then Ukrainian Ambassador to the EU, Kostiantyn
Yeliseyev. Mr Yeliseyev has since been sucked into the Presidential
administration, leaving Liubov Nepop as acting Head of Mission to the EU since 15th July 2015 when Mr
Yeliseyev became Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration.
An appalling state of diplomatic affairs that a Mission as important to
Ukraine as that of the EU, has an acting Head of Mission for 6 months (and
counting).
Of course President Poroshenko, Prime Minister Yatseniuk, Foreign
Minister Klimkin are far from ignoring the EU, and the Ukrainian political
class more generally are oft in Brussels – and undoubtedly a lot of Ukrainian
political time is physically spent there – but that does not excuse the absence
of an appointed ambassador. Protocol, good manners, and common sense
would dictate an acting Head of Mission for so long with a key and
irreplaceable partner would dictate the diplomatic necessity of an appointed
ambassador – perception demands it!
This, in combination with the lack of a politician of significant
official office specifically tasked with coordinating and managing the
gargantuan effort of European integration via the Association Agreement and
DCFTA pathway after that nation-changing ratified treaty has already come into
full effect – notwithstanding matters that fall outside that framework – is
unfathomable.
Every Ukrainian ministry will be effected, to a greater or lesser
degree, by the legally binding agreement between Ukraine and the EU that is now
in full effect. Indeed every Ukrainian ministry has a Deputy Minister
charged with European integration, and has had for months.
Numerous EU Member States are now openly making noises about the absence
of the proposed, and long expected, Vice Prime Minister for European
Integration – and rightly so. In fact it the absence of both the post,
and a suitable incumbent, will feature on 18th January at a meeting of EU
Foreign Ministers.
Such an office should already be in existence and filled with a
competent politician – no differently to the requirement to fill (post haste)
the vacancy at Ukrainian Mission to the EU with a competent diplomat appointed
as Ambassador.
So why hasn’t it been done?
The first question to answer in relation to the political Vice Prime
Minister post is whether legislatively such a position can actually exit – and
what powers any such position will have. It is a separate question for
Messrs Poroshenko and Klimkin regarding that of ambassadors (or not in this
case).
Prime Minister Yatseniuk is known to take micromanagement to a level
beyond extreme – even if taking similar measures to avoid personal
responsibility and accountability – and thus will want to be exceptionally
careful in the powers any Vice Prime Minister for European Integration is given
– lest that individual act, or orate, anything without his personal clearance.
Ukrainian foreign policy, constitutionally, is a presidential matter (as
is national defence and the upholding of, and adherence to, the Constitution
itself) – hence the President appoints the Foreign Minister.
A Vice Prime Minister for European Integration, presumably a
parliamentary appointment within the executive bodies, therefore may smudge some
existing (and perhaps constitutional) lines, thus occasionally stepping upon
both presidential and Foreign Ministry toes if role and
responsibilities/accountabilities are not prudently and thoughtfully given to
the post – and clearly defined.
The post will almost certainly be managerial, and not in any way policy
setting – yet it will need to have real power within the corridors of the
Verkhovna Rada and within the Cabinet of Ministers. It will undoubtedly
become a central node for foreign interlocutors thus requiring the ability to
match the priorities of the Europeans to those within Ukraine when it comes to
what are deemed “hot” integration issues – and deliver most of them in a timely
way.
It will be a post that requires frequent and unfettered access to all
ministries and the Deputy Ministers that already lurk within each, charged with
the European integration of their particular ministry. It will also be a
post in which the incumbent must cope with the extreme micromanagement – and
blatant interference – of Prime Minister Yatseniuk.
So who can take, or perhaps equally as important, who would want to take
this role, as and when/if there is a legislative foundation for the post with a
comprehensive, clear role created (with the necessary real power to fit the job
description)?
There are the obvious and less-obvious that will be touted for the role.
The previous, and longstanding Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN, Yuri
Sergeyev, whilst undoubtedly suitable for the role is perhaps unlikely, for the
position is political and not diplomatic (though he would be a fantastic EU
Ambassador) and such a capable and internationally well connected individual
entering the top of Ukrainian domestic politics would sit far too uncomfortably
for the existing domestic political elite.
It is very unlikely to be a position offered to Odessa’s ambitious
Governor Saakashvili either considering the poor relationship between the Prime
Minister and Governor. Notwithstanding that, the role is almost certainly
“managerial” and Governor Saakashvili is not a “manager”. Further, should
early Verkhovna Rada elections manifest, Governor Saakashvili will launch a
political party and do well – which the President will want in any coalition.
For now the Governor is best left outside the ruling elite from a
Poroshenko viewpoint, and co-opted as “new untainted blood” for any future
coalition.
Having previously been offered the currently non-existent post, could
Mr Yeliseyev be persuaded to leave the Presidential Administration and
assume the Vice Prime Minister for European Integration role? He
certainly knows everybody within the Brussels bubble and is extremely well
acquainted with “how Brussels works”. He is clearly on good terms with
the President and Foreign Minister, and is unlikely to be viewed as a threat by
any of those within the existing/projected Cabinet of Ministers.
There are a few other possibilities, (and favoured political souls), as
well as improbabilities too, that will be touted in the near future.
Perhaps a more complete “runners and riders” list will be necessary anon,
however there is yet another domestic political hurdle to address and overcome.
The allocation of ministerial posts within the Cabinet of Ministers is
on a party quota system (forget meritocracy or ability), dictated by the
composition of the coalition. Under which party quota would a new post of
Vice Prime Minister for European Integration fall – or will any incumbent take
upon an “independent” political label to avoid squabbles ?
Whatever the case, the pressing issue now is not who, but to define the
role and its parameters, agree and assign the powers needed, and create the
legal basis for the position from which those powers and role are born – all in
a timely manner when the absence of such a position is already a political and
diplomatic own goal for which there is simply no excuse. (And appoint an
ambassador to the EU Mission and sort out all the “channels” whilst at it!)
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