Roman Rukomeda
Vladimir Putin presented the Turkish President,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a generous gift - a powerful external enemy. In the
confrontation with Putin's Russia the Turkish leader might make his dream come
true – to become a par with Atatürk, exactly by 2023, the centennial
anniversary of the Turkish Republic. By teasing the Turkish Air Force
stubbornly and repeatedly, and provoking NATO’s second largest army with the
regular violations of airspace, Putin has launched a game Erdogan couldn’t
resist playing.
Having won the first ever direct presidential
elections in Turkey in August last year, as well as retaining the monopoly on
power of his AKP party in the parliamentary elections on Nov. 1 elections,
Erdogan received carte blanche to fulfill his historic mission. The only thing
he was missing was internal consolidation amid intensified activity of the
president's political opponents, as well as a long-lasting struggle with the
Kurds. Turkey’s transformation from the status of friends of Putin’s Russia
into adversaries following the incident with the Russian Su-24 taken down for
airspace violation has opened the doors for Erdogan to play a variety of
political combinations, both within the country, and abroad.
For instance, as the Commander-in-Chief of the
Turkish Armed Forces, President Erdogan may finally restore close and
constructive relations with his military (his longtime rivals in a fight for
political power) in the wake of Russia’s open hostility, obvious escalation of
the Syrian conflict and increased risk of a military threat (deployment of
S-400, aka Growler, surface-to-air missiles in the Russian airbases in Syria).
The notorious "Ergenekon" case of 2003, when of top military
officials, writers and politicians were sentenced to life in prison for an
attempted coup, may be left behind. Today Erdogan could let the military regain
both public respect, and political weight, in return for constructive support
in the fight against long-standing historical enemy - Russia.
Erdogan's popular support deteriorated earlier
this year in the face of the slower growth of the national economy and
accentuated criticism of the president’s opponents on the issues of
socio-economic policy of the Turkish authorities. But as soon as the war
against the Kurds reignited, and a wave of horrible terror attacks covered the
country, putting security in first place, the ratings of Erdogan and his party
jumped back up. They will hike even higher as the Turkish nation unites in the
fight against Putin's Russia, which launched massive anti-Turkish media
hysteria and the already-traditional sanctions campaign, adding to the military
presence in Syria and in the Mediterranean Sea. In this environment, the
internal and external factors combined, it is the best moment for the Turkish
leader to raise the issue of expanding the president’s powers.
As for the foreign policy, the opportunities are
even more interesting. Firstly, there is no doubt that Erdogan is confident,
like many others, that Vladimir Putin and his entourage will fail in their
attempt to start another World War with hybrid methods. Putin's plan is failing
on all fronts and aspects, which brings significantly closer the expected fall
of the Putin regime and the internal transformation of Russia, itself. Needless
to say that in this period, the whole area of Russia’s external influence would
be open for the neighboring to expanding the influence of the neighboring
states. For example, Turkey, as a powerful regional actor, is quite capable of
becoming a center of attraction for all the Turkic-speaking countries of the
Caucasus and Central Asia, dividing the zones of influence with China.
On the other hand, Turkey now has a great
opportunity to normalize relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israeli
warplanes regularly strike the positions of the Syrian army, but today the
prospect of being taken down by the Russian air defense systems become real. It
would be naive to assume that such things will entail no serious consequences
for Russia. Common interests of Turkey and Israel in ousting Assad and Syria’s
internal transformation, as well as the neutralization of the common threat in
the shape of the Russian army which causes regional escalation, is a reasonable
platform for joint efforts.
Despite Turkey’s significantly polarized
positions with Saudi Arabia following the Arab Spring, today the Saudi actually
lead the anti-Russian campaign in the energy sector, launching an oil
“blitzkrieg” in Europe. In its desire to create a powerful regional oil and gas
hub, Turkey could rely on Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran (the latter will start
large-scale exports of hydrocarbons in three to five months). Elimination of
Russia from the scheme does not spoil the perspective, itself, but only
slightly shifts the emphasis. At the same time, military deterrence of Russia
will help Turkey raise its status of a regional leader, normalizing relations
with its neighbors.
Erdogan also has an excellent opportunity to
ridicule Europe, in a revenge for the entire period of EU’s "cool"
attitude toward Turkey over the last decade. By deterring Russia, Ankara shows
real strength, which the European capitals are not able to demonstrate these
days. French President Hollande's calls for wider cooperation with Moscow on
the ground to deal with ISIL after the terrorist attacks in Paris look
extremely disappointing for a state like France, against the backdrop of a
tough stance of Turkey. Europe's inability to curb Putin's Russia militarily
shows that the only NATO’s forces really able to deter Russian provocations are
the United States and Turkey. Without them, NATO would become an easy prey for
Putin's Russia, professing a "game with no rules."
In this context, Turkey started to share
military glory with Ukraine on curbing the Kremlin with military prowess.
Russian horde has first bumped into the heroism of the Ukrainian soldiers in
Donbas, and is now bogged down in a rigid deterrence by Turkey in Syria. It is
possible that these factors actually ensure today’s security and peace in the
Baltics and other European states. For Ukraine, it offers a good opportunity
for the development of truly constructive relations with Turkey on all issues,
starting with the military and military-technical cooperation, to drafting an
Action Plan for the development of Crimea after the restoration of Ukrainian
jurisdiction over the Russian-occupied peninsula.
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