At best, Andrzej Duda's triumph in the
Polish presidential vote could foster stagnation in Moscow
and Warsaw's already tense relations, while at worst further
deterioration may be in store, political analysts told The Moscow
Times on Monday.
Duda, a member of the European Parliament
who ran in the presidential race as a candidate for Poland's
conservative Law and Justice party, received 52 percent of the vote,
according to the exit polls and early vote tallies, beating incumbent
Bronislaw Komorowski in the second and final round of polling
held Sunday. Though in Poland the president's role is largely
ceremonial, the elected official is vested with the power
to propose or veto legislative initiatives.
Poland has been among the most virulent critics
of Russia's annexation of Crimea and its alleged role in fueling
strife in eastern Ukraine. The tensions in bilateral relations
between Russia and Poland — already envenomed by centuries
of intermittent conflict and spells of occupation — have
been further exacerbated by their clashing perspectives of the ongoing
crisis in Ukraine.
Poland has not signaled that its stance on Russia
will let up any time soon, according to both Polish and Russian
political analysts. President-elect Duda, known for his harsh rhetoric
regarding Russia and his proposal to arm Ukrainian forces
to assist them in their fight against pro-Russian separatists
in the country's east, is unlikely to revert the current course,
they said. Duda has also called for the permanent stationing of NATO
forces on Polish territory to deter Russian military activity
in eastern Europe, Polish media has reported.
"One thing is certain with the arrival
of the new president: relations [between Russia and Poland] are not
going to improve anytime soon," said Larisa Lykoshina, a scholar
of Polish politics at the Russian Academy of Sciences. "The
degree to which he follows the conservative line set out by his
party will be up to him. We just have to wait and see."
Duda, 43, hails from the party of former
president Lech Kaczynski, who perished in a plane crash in Russia
in 2010, along with other high-ranking Polish officials. The Polish
air force aircraft had been headed to Smolensk to take part
in the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the Katyn
massacre, a series of mass executions of Polish nationals
perpetrated by the Soviet secret police. The massacre, and the
subsequent plane crash, continue to plague the countries' bilateral
relations.
Kaczynski had been known for his staunch
anti-Russian rhetoric.
According to Lykoshina, the differences
between the incumbent's party — the Civic Platform —
and the Law and Justice party are likely to inspire only
a slight change in relations with Russia, if any. The Civic
Platform, in power since 2007, had toiled to revert
the anti-Russian policies made by previous Law and Justice
governments. In 2008, Russia and Poland reactivated a joint
Group for Difficult Issues, a consultative body to work
on contentious historical issues. The joint commemoration of the
Katyn massacre, although it ended in disaster, had been part of the
rapprochement initiatives.
Other observers were likewise skeptical of the
prospect of any stark changes in Poland's approach to Russia
under Duda, although they noted that his stances tend to be more
hard-line. Real changes in Polish policy toward Russia could take place
after the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled to take place
in October.
"If the Law and Justice party [Duda's
party] wins the parliamentary elections, they [Russian-Polish relations]
will indeed deteriorate even further," Ignacy Niemczycki, a senior
analyst for European affairs at Warsaw-based think tank
the Polityka Insight Center for Policy Analysis, wrote
in e-mailed comments to The Moscow Times on Monday. "Civil
Platform and [former president Bronislaw] Komorowski are critical of the
Kremlin, but they favored establishing people-to-people contacts with
Russia."
Marcin Domagala, vice president of the European
Center for Geopolitical Studies, an online political news portal
based in Warsaw, said that Duda's presidency could set the tone
for the future of Russo-Polish relations but would not affect
the nature of the countries' relations.
"Duda will not be a decision-maker, this is
not his role as president," Domagala said. "His role will be
to set the tone for foreign policy. His views are more radical
than that of his predecessor, but we should not expect great change
from Duda's arrival alone. Polish policy toward Russia has two directions:
negative and very negative."
President Vladimir Putin congratulated Duda
on his victory, sending him a telegram in which he said that
building bilateral relations "based on principles of good
neighborly relations and the mutual respect of interests" would
bolster European security and stability, according to the Kremlin's
website.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Monday that
the country hoped to build "unbiased" relations "free
of stereotypes" with all countries, including Poland,
the Interfax news agency reported.
Duda will assume office on Aug. 6.
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