WASHINGTON — No doubt the war in Ukraine, which has claimed more than 6,000
lives and internally displaced more than one million people, is a large-scale
human tragedy. Yet President Vladimir Putin of Russia’s adventurism and
President Obama’s restrained response are not, as some commentators have
suggested, evidence that the world’s security architecture is collapsing.
Should the crisis in Ukraine remain in Ukraine, this entire episode would
actually signal victory for the international order that the United States has
underwritten since World War II.
Much of Europe is more united on security issues today than it has been in
years. Germany is finding its feet as the Continent’s foreign policy leader.
Although many European countries’ defense budgets fall short of their
commitments to NATO, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Norway, the Netherlands and
Romania have announced that they will increase their defense spending. More
needs to be done, but that Europe is taking its defense more seriously is
undeniably a good thing for the United States.
In another notable victory for American leadership, just years after
rallying support for an international sanctions regime against Iran over its
nuclear program, Washington has repeated that diplomatic feat against Russia.
It was partly at its behest that the European Union enacted firm sanctions
against Moscow. And those, combined with plummeting world oil prices, have left
the Russian economy in tatters.
In January, the ratings agency Standard & Poor’s cut Russia’s sovereign
credit rating to junk status. Wealthy Russians are leaving the country in
droves. Capital flight more than doubled in 2014, to about $151 billion that
year alone. Consumer prices are skyrocketing. The International Monetary Fund
estimates that Russia’s economy will shrink by 3 percent in 2015.
Mr. Putin, in other words, has bitten off much more than his country can
chew. Russia may still be a nuclear-armed regional power with military forces
mightier than all its neighbors except China, but it is a shadow of the Soviet
Union in terms of power projection. Seizing Crimea and waging war in Ukraine’s
eastern provinces has taxed Russia’s armed forces and its treasury, leaving
this United States rival weakened, if not chastened.
The Russian government protests that it has no troops operating in Ukraine.
This claim is ridiculous, but also significant: It is a bow to international
law. If Mr. Putin really was flipping over the geopolitical chessboard, he
would not be so dogged about making transparent attempts at obfuscation.
All of this has repercussions well beyond Europe. Some commentators fear
that Washington’s failure to react more robustly to Russia’s aggression in
Ukraine might encourage China to seize territory from its neighbors in Asia. In
fact, the crisis in Ukraine has demonstrated that America’s commitments to its
allies remain sacrosanct, and that sends an important deterrent signal to
China.
The Chinese Communist Party should be wondering if it would trigger severe
reprisals in East Asia should it ever secure disputed reefs or islands in the
South or East China Seas. China makes much of its wealth by exporting
manufactured goods, and is at least as vulnerable as Russia to international
sanctions and other more assertive countermeasures, such as a naval blockade.
For China’s neighbors, too, the crisis in Ukraine should both justify and
strengthen the current American-led international order. Ukraine had made
itself vulnerable by tolerating corruption and failing to modernize its
military forces; Asian states beware. Especially for those not formally allied
with the United States, the risks of remaining outside regional security
arrangements have become plain. It is no coincidence that Vietnam and Malaysia
have been trying to forge stronger relations with the United States.
Ukraine’s fate as a united entity is uncertain, and the ongoing suffering
of its people should not be minimized. But as grave as these issues are, they
do not threaten the vital strategic interests of the United States. If anything,
Russia’s war in Ukraine means net benefits for Washington: NATO allies are
recognizing the importance of strengthening their defense capabilities; the
states of Europe have drawn closer together; and countries elsewhere are seeing
the need to offset regional powers by strengthening their own military forces
and forging alliances.
This is a point well worth underlining to the hawks in Washington. Indeed,
people in both main parties are insisting that the United States arm Ukraine,
even though that course of action risks escalating the conflict into a larger
and deadlier war, while undermining the unexpected gains it has brought to
date. Mr. Putin’s gambit in Ukraine was a bid to boost Russia’s strength and
world standing, but it is only bolstering the American-sponsored world order.
Don’t interrupt the enemy while he makes the wrong move.
Ryan Evans is the editor in chief of War on the Rocks, a digital
platform on strategy, defense and foreign affairs.
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