Fragile Cease-Fire in Ukraine Inspires Little Confidence in West

BRUSSELS - No one really expects Ukraine to get better before it gets worse, or for the promises contained in last month's cease-fire agreement to be kept.

Instead, senior Western diplomats and analysts are predicting a further escalation of tensions, including the placing of Russian nuclear weapons in the annexed Crimean Peninsula; efforts to create more unrest in cities like Mariupol and as far west as Odessa; advances by Russian-supported rebels against an undergunned and dispirited Ukrainian Army; and attempts to destabilize the Western-leaning government in Kiev, beginning with President Petro O. Poroshenko himself.

The West, which seems united, is actually divided over Russia's actions in Ukraine and what to do about them.

Having hailed the revolution at the Maidan in Kiev, and the flight of former President Viktor F. Yanukovych in February 2014, as a victory for democracy and a defeat for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the United States and Europe are united on one matter: their refusal to consider military defense of Ukraine.

But they disagree on much else: whether to give Kiev arms, defensive or lethal; whether Ukraine should receive more economic aid, and in return for what benchmarks or promises; and whether the cease-fire agreed to last month in Minsk, the capital of neighboring Belarus, is being carried out.

Those disagreements were clear this month at the annual Brussels Forum of the German Marshall Fund, which brings together top officials from the United States and Europe.

European nations - led by Germany and France, which negotiated with Mr. Putin and Mr. Poroshenko in Minsk - oppose giving Kiev even defensive arms, arguing that it would inflame the situation and provide justification for Russian escalation.

But Washington is not convinced. Nor is NATO's supreme commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, who said the West must respond to Russia's active supply of advanced weapons and troops to the rebels, which is undermining confidence in European security. "We, I think, in the West should consider all our tools in reply," he said. "Could it be destabilizing? The answer is yes. Also, inaction could be destabilizing. Is inaction an appropriate action?"

General Breedlove's outspokenness and willingness to publicize photographs of continuing Russian intervention in Ukraine have not endeared him to German officials or to some in Washington, who do not want to be pushed into making difficult decisions.

While European officials generally say that the cease-fire is holding and that elements of the Minsk agreement, like the withdrawal of heavy weapons, are proceeding, American officials disagree. "We continue to see disturbing evidence of air defense, command and control, resupply equipments coming across a completely porous border, so there are concerns whether Minsk is being followed or not," General Breedlove said in the face of Russian denials.

Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state for European affairs, said the Russian-supported separatists possessed far better and more sophisticated military equipment than the Ukrainian Army. "We've seen, month on month, more lethal weaponry of a higher caliber" from "separatist Russian allies" entering Ukraine, she said. "The No. 1 thing is for Russia to stop sending arms over the border so we can have real politics."

European Union officials have agreed to extend financial sanctions in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea. But the bloc's high representative for foreign affairs, Federica Mogherini, has said she will lift the sanctions against Russia, a neighbor and trading partner to the European Union, as soon as feasible, while acknowledging here in Brussels, "It depends on the situation on the ground."

Russia faces large loan payments by year's end that exceed its foreign-currency reserves, making some officials wonder whether it will escalate or try to accommodate, hoping to get the European sanctions lifted.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, the former American national security adviser, expressed pessimism. Predicting the placement of Russian nuclear weapons in Crimea, he said, "I'm not sure that, at this stage, we have succeeded in convincing the Russians that we are prepared to deter the kind of steps they are adopting."

Mr. Brzezinski said he wanted to balance deterrence and accommodation, but suggested that "the Russians may pursue an assertive policy towards Ukraine just far enough to avoid a military confrontation but produce the result of the total collapse of the Ukrainian economy, the wasting of billions of dollars that came from the West. "Despite the sanctions, he said, Russia" remains a major power and therefore achieves a major change in the geopolitical situation in Europe."

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