By Aaron Blake
It’s midterm election eve, and we’re in a somewhat similar situation to where we were in 2016. According to projections, Democrats are a strong favorite to win the night’s big prize: this time, the House. As 2016 showed us, though, taking strong odds and reading them as guarantees can make you look awfully dumb.
So as we all prepare to watch the returns Tuesday, here are a few conceivable ways it could go.
1. Democrats win the House, while the GOP holds the Senate and even gains a seat or two
How it would happen: This appears the most likely scenario, if you’re to believe the polls.
Republicans have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, which means Democrats need a net gain of two seats to take the chamber. That’s unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP. Despite a favorable environment for Democrats, Republicans have hung tough when it comes to possibly nicking a Senate seat or two (or three) in the many red states Democrats have to defend — possibly offsetting GOP losses in Arizona and Nevada and maybe even leading to a net gain for Republicans.
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