Information from Baku
News updates from verified sources
Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has reported this afternoon that a decision was made 'to unilaterally suspend offensive, as well as reciprocal measures with regard to the enemy.' As it is pointed out in the statement, the decision was made 'on recommendation of the international agencies and in view of the peaceful policy of the Azerbaijani state.'
Azerbaijani Defense Ministry’s press service reports that Azerbaijani positions have been shelled by the enemy all through the night and this morning. According to the press service, ' Armenian armed forces 130 times violated the ceasefire regime ' [this wording is still is use in Azerbaijani Mass Media]. The Defense Ministry reports that Azerbaijani army launched counterattacks against the enemy’s positions.
The day before, on April 2, the Defence Ministry has released a rather detailed statement, providing information on where exactly the developments unfolded, listing the enemy’s casualties and confirming the death of 12 servicemen. Then the Ministry also reported on liberation of Saysulan village and the highland areas around Talish village. Both areas are located in Nagorno-Karabakh, on the contact line and they were previously under control of the Armenian armed forces – the Ministry reports.
MeydanTV published a map, showing how the contact line of troops had been presumably shifted on April 2.
There has been no official information on casualties among civilians. According to the media reports, Jalal Rahimov, an IDP, was killed as a result of artillery shelling, in Garagaji village, Terter district. Whereas his son, Orkhan Rahimov, lost both of his legs.
Throughout the day there came contradictory reports about the evacuation of civilians from the frontline villages. Journalist Seymour Kazimov visited Chyragly village (100-150 meters from the Armenian positions), Agdam region, late on April 2. As he reported, civil population had been evacuated from the village. However, a few hours later, the people started returning home.
The Defence Ministry called on the citizens to refrain from disseminating rumors and creating panic, as well as not to share information of strategic importance via the Internet.
Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan phoned Ilham Aliyev and expressed condolences over the losses.
Trend One: “Russia’s hand” could be clearly seen in the developments
'The strength of our strike is confirmed not by the parties‘ reports, but rather by the rapidness of Russia’s intervention, that has rushed to save its client.'
'My dear and beloved people, I congratulate all those, who languorously sigh for the Soviet times and Russia - you are the ISIS followers, stricken by insight.'
A link to the Russian NTV video, showing the 'aftermath of shelling' of the Armenian villages, has added fuel to the fire. The video was actually shot in Azerbaijani village and published by Radio Liberty.
Every now and then, there are skirmishes with Russian social network users, supporting Armenia.
Trend Two: Patriotism and return home.
The degree of patriotism in the social networks has increased in general, especially as the Defence Ministry for the first time proudly annoounced about liberation of Seysulan village and the highlands around Talish village. Internally displaced people have started talking about returning home.
'I have told my friend: if they take in Agdam – let’s go to my place, if they occupy Fuzuli –let’s go to yours.'
'Last time my heart was beating so fast, when I saw the girl of my dreams, though it all went sour, but the sensations were the same.'
Trend Three : War to the bitter end.
'It is high time for the president to declare the nation-wide mobilization. Population aged from 20 to 60. We can put upwards million people under the arms at short notice. '
Trend Four: Anything but war.
'All those, who wanted war – you could now see, what it is like. Twelve people have been already killed.'
A photo of Samir Gachaev, (DoB 1994), a graduate of the Arts Academy, one of 12 killed servicemen, has been spread through the social networks.
Overview of expert opinions
All Azerbaijani experts unanimously claim that the recent developments are not just another period of escalation, that we frequently observed before.
'We are on the verge of military conflict,' – Rasim Musabekov, political analyst, MP told Radio Liberty.
Shahin Rzayev, a journalist, has an unpopular version of the causes of what is going on now: 'I do not exclude that the current aggravation is the result of some prior arrangement. Though, perhaps, at some moment, the parties lost control of the situation and it turned out to be more wide-scale than initially expected.”
What is it for? Currently, none of the parties wants to compromise, rightly considering that it will just shake their authority within the public. It especially concerns Armenia. However, after the public will realized that a full-scale bloodshed war may begin, that dozens of coffins of young guys will be brought every day, that there will be again the shortages of food, gas, etc., taking compromise would not be such a bitter pill after all. The main thing is to stop the bloodshed. Well, and the 'peacekeepers' will certainly get their portion of credits. There are good reasons that Lavrov has been so often visiting the region.'
Reports from Yerevan
News updates from verified sources
Armenian media has released a statement of the Ministry of Defence of Nagorno-Karabakh, in which the latter denied reports on truce proposals from Baku. Artsrun Hovhannisyan, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry, has commented on the report as follows: 'Azerbaijani statement is an information trap, it does not imply a unilateral truce. Do not ask for clarifications. Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army will make a statement. '
According to all Armenian on-line media reports, including that of the Armenian First TV channel, all-out battles have resumed since morning of April 3 and are underway now.
Media outlets, that are believed to be the reliable sources in Armenia, as well as the First TV channel, report that Karabakh army has regained a strategically important position, taken in by the Azerbaijani Armed Forces yesterday. The same sources have reported that two Armenian soldiers were wounded.
“Tochka U” missile systems and “Tornado” multiple launch rocket systems have been delivered to Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia this morning – Russian media reports. There have not been any reports on that either from official agencies or in Armenian mass media.
Earlier Russian media reported that Armenia had also deployed some other military hardware in Nagorno-Karabakh. There have not been any reports on the aforesaid either from Armenian official structures or in Armenian mass media.
At the same time, at the National Security meeting on April 2, Armenian President, Serzh Sargsyan suggested that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia should start discussions on possible conclusion of military assistance agreement with the NKR.
Speaking at the meeting with military attaches of the foreign embassies today, Deputy Defence Minister, David Tonoyanstates: 'Armenia is ready for any development of the situation, and, if necessary, for direct military assistance to NKR.'
Volunteers from Armenia have departed to the contact line this morning. “Yerkpara” volunteers’ union has also organized dispatch of volunteers. As the union has reported, “several thousands of volunteers, who are coordinating their activities with the military structures of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh,” have left for the conflict zone today.
There haven’t been any new reports on casualties in clashes. The official figure for the time being remains the same – 18 Armenian servicemen were killed. According to the official data, 37 people were wounded.
There are also no new data on the casualties among civilians. On April 2, there have been media reports that a 12-year-old boy was killed and two more children were wounded.
Review of social network discussions
Trend One: Armenian Facebook-users actively encourage each other to read and disseminate information from reliable sources.
'Those, who are fishing in troubled water, have also become active today along with adequate Mass Media. They have been disseminating misleading and false information. I call on you to be vigilant and refrain from sharing any kind of trash.'
Trend Two: Support to volunteers, departing to the conflict zone.
'Hooray to the guys, who are voluntarily going to war. I’m just sitting and thinking, whether I would let my son go there, plunge into the thick of the battle. Such guys are probably not the ones, who are going to ask anyone for a permission, especially their mothers. They're just going to defend us.'
Trend Three: Azerbaijan was the first to take the military actions, who helps it?
'It is important for them to maintain the positions [occupied on April 2], in order to declare a victory on the domestic market. And since they sustained serious losses in the process of maintaining those very positions, they now want to stop.'
'If Russia is really a strategic ally of Armenia, it should recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh as soon as possible.' Reply to this post: 'The problem is that it is no longer the ally. And there is actually no Russia.'
'Russia, that initiated signing of truce deal in Bishkek, is selling weapons to Azerbaijan, thus depriving Armenia of any guarantees.'
Review of expert discussions
Armenian political analysts are absolutely unanimous in their assessment of the developments, there are no differences in opinions.
An example of a common assessment: Ara Papyan, political analyst, the head of 'Modus Vivendi' Center:
'Azerbaijan could feel changes in accents and could realize that the world community will not support it [its vision] on settlement of Karabakh conflict. [Therefore, for the first time] after conclusion of truce agreement in 1994, Azerbaijan is getting ready for the second phase of war in Nagorno-Karabakh. [Actually] Azerbaijan has never made a secret of its intention to settle the Karabakh problem by war. Resumption of hostilities will allow Azerbaijani authorities to minimize the social unrest in the Azerbaijani society and tension between ethnic and religious groups in the country, through consolidating the population against a foreign enemy.'
JAMnews Dossier:
• JAMnews on the beginning of armed conflict
• JAMnews on the number of casualties from both parties, there have been no new data yet
• Information provided by the official sources of the conflicting parties is controversial and does not allow to answer the question: who started the military actions, and who responded. International sources also cannot answer this question yet.
• UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon; French President, Francois Hollande; U.S. government spokesman, John Kerry; Russian President, Vladimir Putin and other politicians, have called for immediate ceasefire.
• The armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh took place in 1991-1994. Since entering into truce, Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has existed as de facto independent republic, not recognized by any country of the world, including Armenia. Azerbaijan considers Karabakh and the adjacent areas, taken in during the war, as the occupied territories and demands their return.
• The parties to the conflict regularly report on clashes on the contact line and accuse each other of provocations.
Cover photo: Orkhan Sultanov. Binagadi settlement in Azerbaijan has become a new home for IDPs from Karabakh.
The opinions expressed in the article, convey the author’s views and terminology and do not necessarily reflect the position of the editorial staff.
Published 03.04.2016
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