Adam Ereli
Two
days before Christmas, as American policymakers were settling into the
holidays, Russia quietly signed a sweeping air
defense agreement with Armenia, accelerating a growing Russian military buildup that
has unfolded largely under the radar. It was the most tangible sign yet that
Putin is creating a new satellite state on NATO’s border and threatening an
indispensable U.S. ally.
The buildup in #Armenia has been glossed
over in Washington, despite being a key piece of Vladimir Putin’s plan to
dominate the region — along with its proxy Syria and growing military ties with
Iran. Most importantly, Armenia shares an approximately 165 mile border
with Turkey, a NATO member and the alliance’s southern flank.
Over the last six months — as Russia’s war
in Syria and pressure on Turkey has intensified — the flow of its arms and
personnel into Armenia has escalated to include advanced Navodchik-2 and Takhion UAV drone
aircrafts, Mi-24 helicopter gunships and Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Last July, Putin ordered snap combat readiness checks in
Armenia to test the ability of his forces to react to threats to Russia’s
interests abroad. Earlier this month on
orders of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu, Russia began a massive
military exercise in its “southwestern strategic direction,” which includes
Armenia. The total strength of the regional operation included approximately 8,500 troops, 900 ground artillery
pieces, 200 warplanes and 50 warships.
The growing Russian military presence in
Armenia is but the latest indicator of a worrisome trend: Putin’s threat
to NATO and America’s interests in Europe.
The
Armenian-Russian alliance is gaining strength
The Armenian-Russian alliance is gaining
strength. Armenia currently hosts an estimated 5,000 Russian military
personnel and two
Russian bases. In
2010, both countries signed an agreement that
extended Russia’s basing rights in Armenia by 24 years, until 2044, and committed Moscow to supply the Armenian armed
forces with “modern and compatible weaponry and special military hardware,”
according to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan. The 102nd Military
Base in Gyumri, Armenia — nearly 120 kilometers from the capital (and less than
10 kilometers from the Turkish border) — has become a crucial Russian beachhead.
A similar Russian deployment on the
borders of any other NATO member state would produce an outcry of outrage. Why
are we staying silent in the face of this thinly veiled aggression against
Turkey? And why are we not speaking up against Armenia for rolling out the
red carpet for Putin’s shock troops?
Turkey, after all, is a critical ally in
the global fight against ISIS and is among the only members of the U.S.-led
coalition with bases near strategic ISIS strongholds. In July 2015, Turkey and the U.S. finalized an agreement to work
cooperatively to combat Islamic State terrorists in Syria and Iraq, allowing
the U.S. to launch air attacks from the Incirlik air base in southern Turkey
against Islamic State terrorist networks in northern Syria.
In
international diplomacy, geography is everything
We ignore this threat at our peril. And in
international diplomacy, geography is everything. Armenia borders three
critical U.S. allies: Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russian forces currently
occupy Georgian territory. Azerbaijan steadfastly resists intimidation from
Moscow and is the linchpin in our efforts to wean Europe from dependence on
Russian energy supplies.
Make no mistake: The Russian military
presence in Armenia represents a dagger pointed at the heart of NATO as the
Armenia-Russian alliance strengthens. But while Moscow is rattling its sabers,
Washington remains silent.
Last August, The
Moscow Times reported that President Putin told Turkey’s Ambassador
to Moscow to “tell your dictator President he can go to hell along with his
ISIS terrorists and I shall make Syria to nothing but a ‘Big Stalingrad.’”
Histrionics aside, the intent is clear. Russia views Turkey as a hostile state
and it will not back down.
The picture that has emerged is
unsettling: Armenia is enabling a bad actor, while Russia is using it to
threaten our vital interests. America’s leaders must negotiate from a position
of strength. Instead, we are acquiescing to Putin’s naked show of force. The
history of the 20th century shows us that this will not end well.
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