BY PAUL TAYLOR
BRUSSELS - The
European Union needs an ambitious grand bargain at its next summit to rescue
itself from an accumulation of crises that threaten to blow apart its model of
integration.
Like children at
a birthday party, each leader has to get a going-home present. And as with many
children's parties, there may be a tantrum along the way.
German
Chancellor Angela Merkel is at risk at home from a backlash against a mass
influx of Syrian refugees. British Prime Minister David Cameron is trying to
win a referendum on staying in the EU and cannot help her due to public
hostility to immigration. Nor can French President Francois Hollande, who is
struggling for re-election in a country transfixed by the threat from Islamist
militants.
Berlin, the EU's
pivotal power, sees controlling migration as the central priority as it tries
to cope with one million asylum seekers who have arrived in the last year.
Ideally, EU
leaders need to forge a deal on Feb. 18-19 that encompasses effective action to
strengthen Europe's external borders and share the refugee burden, and a
mutually acceptable solution to Britain's demands to change its membership
terms.
A comprehensive
package would also need to address Italy's political and economic frustrations
with the EU, Greece's quest for substantial debt relief, and Poland's wish to
see NATO raise its military presence in eastern Europe to deter Russia.
"These
deals are only possible when countries are in a state of symmetrical
despair," said Laszlo Andor, a professor at Brussels' ULB University and
former Hungarian EU commissioner.
A package deal
might yield a more integrated "core Europe", adding an EU border and
coast guard and a common asylum policy, and a looser union for countries like
Britain that opt to stay outside the 19-nation euro single currency area.
A deal seems
within reach with London that would formally exempt the UK from the EU goal of
"ever closer union", shield its financial sector from being regulated
abusively by the euro zone and let it withhold some benefits from new migrant
workers if its social welfare system were under great strain.
The EU would
cease to be a "two-speed Europe", with all 28 members converging at
different paces toward the same goal, and become a permanent two-tier or
multi-tier construction, possibly with an outer circle of associates such as
Turkey and Ukraine.
TIPPING POINT
While European
leaders' despair may not be symmetrical, the refugee crisis is concentrating
minds on a threat that could break the union, fan populism and alienate British
voters.
European Council
President Donald Tusk has warned that the EU is close to a tipping point,
saying it has only six to eight weeks left to save the Schengen zone of
passport-free travel or see national barriers slam shut for the duration.
That raises the
urgency of a deal with Greece and Italy, the main arrival points for migrants
from Turkey and North Africa.
Horse-trading to
accommodate multiple national interests is a classic technique for advancing
European integration and seems designed to break logjams in what Juncker calls
a "polycrisis".
Rome is blocking
an EU aid package for Turkey to help curb the influx of migrants into Europe;
Athens stands accused of failing to guard its borders or to register and retain
asylum-seekers on its soil; and Warsaw is under scrutiny in Brussels over laws
shackling the judiciary and the media.
Each of those
countries has hinted it is willing to do more to help others if its own
interests are taken into account.
Merkel is keen
to help Cameron win his planned referendum on whether Britain should stay in
the EU, but she is increasingly fighting for her own political skin in the
refugee crisis.
Berlin feels it
has received little solidarity from its EU partners, while elsewhere there is a
sense that reluctance to share the refugee burden is partly payback for
perceived German bullying during the euro zone crisis.
Germany and its
Dutch, Austrian and Finnish allies are more inclined to use sticks than carrots
with Greece.
The European
Commission this week gave Athens three months to fix "serious
deficiencies" in its management of the bloc's external frontiers or face
suspension from the Schengen area.
That deadline
expires just as Greek debt talks are due to start.
Domestic
headwinds may make it harder for Merkel to use her dwindling political capital
to offer concessions to Greece on rescheduling its debt to euro zone countries.
Many in Berlin
and Brusssels doubt Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can deliver tighter
border controls or keep tens of thousands of migrants penned up in Greece until
they can be relocated to reluctant EU countries.
Yet the
chancellor has voiced understanding for Greece's plight as a frontline state
and says she wants a "European solution" to the refugee crisis. No
one wants another "Grexit" crisis this year on top of the EU's other
woes.
If Greek
compliance is uncertain, Turkey's cooperation in preventing migrants leaving
its shores for Europe in return for 3 billion euros in aid is subject to deep
scepticism.
The Italians
want more EU cash to cope with migrants landing on their own shores and more
fiscal leeway from Europe's budget supervisors to stimulate their sluggish
economy.
Poland is the
biggest supplier of migrant labor to Britain. Its foreign minister has hinted
it could acquiesce in London's needs to curb in-work benefits for new arrivals
if Cameron sends troops to provide a long-term NATO presence on its soil.
The makings of
trade-offs are easy to see, but in the fraught state of relations among EU
leaders, it is a tall order.
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