BY
For the next 48 hours Ukrainian political media
will be dominated by the 5th visit of US VP Joe Biden to Ukraine in 6 years.
Much attention will be given to his formal
address to the dysfunctional
and reform stymieing Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday undoubtedly – a body viewed
with much derision by the Ukrainian constituency due to its fecklessness,
notwithstanding its mandarin functioning for the grey cardinals and oligarchy
that lurk like a cancer behind the political curtain.
Last week Prime Minister Yatseniuk was forced to
jettison close associate and fellow party member MP Martynenko, as the corrupt
smell around him was simply too overpowering with face to face meetings with VP
Biden requiring the standard associated claims to be fighting corruption (when
undoubtedly US Embassy Kyiv will be whispering the names of Martynenko,
Kononenko and Shokin in VP Biden’s ear as “problems” – not withstanding the
usual list of oligarchy names, Kolomoisky, Firtash, Liovochklin etc as
“problems” too).
The Martynenko problem however, should not be
solved by Yatsenkiuk simply having his chum fall upon his parliamentary sword –
If the Swiss and Czech prosecutors are investigating him then Ukraine should be
too. Justice is hardly going to served (or seen to be) by a simple
resignation from the Verkhovna Rada (assuming the Verhovna Rada votes to accept
his resignation).
Indeed Odessa Governor Saakashvili has made very
public claims in preparation for VP BIden’s visit about nefarious schemes Prime
Minister Yatseniuk is at the very least allowing to continue (albeit there are
those that would suggest his involvement too).
Some very big fish require frying – and then
jailing for a long time. Nothing else is going to do.
However, before the Tuesday address of the
Verkhovna Rada, an address which will be hopefully praiseworthy where
appropriate (ergo very little) but otherwise fire and brimstone regarding the
body’s fecklessness and complete inability to meet even the lowest expectations
of the Ukrainian constituency in a timely fashion, there will be meetings with
President Poroshenko, Prime Minister Yatseniuk et al., on the Monday.
It can be expected that $300 million additional
aid will be announced and there will be smiles for the cameras – but what is
far more important is that behind closed doors no holds barred conversations
take place with each and every politician VP Biden sits down with – and in the
least possible of diplomatic language.
The Ukrainian leadership both individually and
collectively should be left under no illusions that whilst the US will do what
is necessary to support Ukrainian internationally recognised borders and
international rule of law, all other future nation building assistance to be
offered is absolutely, unambiguously, and entirely linked to reform, tackling
corruption, putting parameters upon the oligarchy, and sorting the judiciary
within 2016. If necessary for the retarded to fully understand, a step by
step guide of what is expected and by when on the path to completion of certain
policy goals within a very clear time frame.
In fact such a sloth-like leadership (over
issues that actually matter to the electorate to the detriment of vested
interests at the top) will probably have to be given a written list of
requirements and a date for completion for each and every areas of US
“encouragement” if the US is to be seen to support the Ukrainian people rather
than the majority of the feckless Ukrainian political class. (Clearly the
US support will remain for parliamentarians such as Mustafa Nayem and Hanna
Hopko etc, as well as “Team Saakashvili” (as long as the Governor can remain in
control of himself)).
If there be early Verkhovna Rada elections both
“Team Saakashvili” and whatever political party is born of reformers like Nayem
and Hopko (for they are unlikely to be one and the same political party, as the
young reforms would have to make some political moral and ethical concessions
for such an association with regard to the “means” when it comes to reaching
the”ends” – their idealistic justifications of “means” in reaching the same
“ends” are unlikely to be as “pragmatic” as those of the Governor.
The EU for its part will have to insist that
Ukraine meets the time frame within the ratified Association Agreement too – a
message that should be delivered just as loud and and just as clear when
President Poroshenko heads to Brussels a few days post-Biden. Other
nations with notable influence within Kyiv – Canada, Norway, Poland, and Sweden
– are going to have to be hard-nosed in their bilaterals too throughout 2016.
Hopefully VP Biden is not about to leave the
Ukrainian political leadership with a very comfortable New Year or Christmas
after his visit. Blunt, harsh and uncompromising words are in need of
being spoken. Unambiguous conditionality, with a specific and unbending
time table for insured continued support is required if the US is to do for the
Ukrainian people what it has so often orated – standing with them – rather than
the political class necessarily.
Though undoubtedly nothing will be written here
of the whispers that will reach you author about what was indeed said behind
the closed doors, hopefully those whispers will carry words of harsh and stark
conversations that will provide your author with some comfort over the festive
season nevertheless.
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