BY
In a (well received) recent
entry that attempted
to explain the current state of play within the Verkhovna Rada in the simplest
of terms, several paragraphs inferred the creation of an anti-corruption
political party.
In fact it inferred there may be a few – “Governor Saakashvili
will at some point launch “Team Saakashvili” as a political party – and it will
be successful. Probably very successful. It will undoubtedly pull from Solidarity,
People’s Front, Batkivshchyna and Samopomich constituencies – with serious
constituency injuries for all concerned.
There will be no home for the majority of existing MPs
within “Team Saakashvili” to be sure. There will be a few exceptions should
they show a desire – the obvious and untainted reformers – but otherwise
Governor Saakashvili has a list of vetted, western education/western business
experienced people from his appeals to help in Odessa. That list is in the
hundreds when it comes to vetted, competent and uncorrupted 25 – 45 year old
Ukrainians. Indeed the most controversial name on his party list would probably
be his own.”
And – “There may also be a
“pro-reform” party appear – it takes only the “Anti-Corruption Platform” group
that currently exists within Solidarity to split and form as a political party
that would cross the electoral threshold.”
Notwithstanding – “If Governor Saakashvili can see the current Verkhovna Rada
mathematics clearly, and the constitutional majority requirements on the
legislative time table, is his best course of action still to try and force the
Yatseniuk issue with such political energy now, or should he perhaps whilst
keeping the pressure on and in the issue in the public eye with slightly less
gusto, spend more time marshaling his own troops, preparing for national “Team
Saakashvili” party offices with competent corruption free management etc? In
short a clear policy for party creation and programming nationwide in
preparation to maximise his result (which is likely to be good, but could be
very good). His time on the Ukrainian national stage will surely come after
all.”
The 23rd December saw a Governor Saakashvili convened anti-corruption
conference in Kyiv (with an introductory Presidential address via a link).
The conference is still on-going at the time this entry is published, so
any events and incidents, commentary and interpretations thereof, cannot yet be
written.
However, it is clear that whilst no anti-corruption party will be
launched during the conference, a good deal of work behind the scenes is
currently underway to establish one.
What it will be called is really rather irrelevant for now, but there is
a clear indication that “Team Saakashvili”, numerous young reformist MPs,
particularly of the “Anti-Corruption Platform” within the President’s
Solidarity Party, and the Democratic Alliance Party, all seem to have much more
than a meeting of minds – not withstanding NGO support too.
Obviously for electoral purposes, a single anti-corruption party of the
genuinely reform minded makes political sense.
For readers that are unaware of the Democratic Alliance Party, it was
once an NGO – an NGO filled with uncorrupted, reform minded, and intelligent
Ukrainians spread across the nation. It was an NGO that put its members
through training courses – on local governance for example (or at least the
Odessa branch did). It was, in short, rather professional about what it
did and how it did it.
Indeed the Carnegie Endowment smiled lovingly upon it as an NGO, being
forced to leave it to its own devises when it became a political party during
the last months of the Yanukovych regime – a move from NGO to political party
driven by perceived necessity in order to avoid any Yanukovych regime crack
down on NGOs, and attempt shield itself (and its members) with claims of
political persecution if subjected to Yanukovych regime harassment – or worse.
Cards on the table, if your author were to offer his services or
experience to any existing political party in Ukraine, it would be to the
Democratic Alliance Party, despite its current embryonic stage in political
development.
One upshot of the (on-going at the time of publication) anti-corruption
conference is very clear however – there will be an anti-corruption party
formed from this public meeting of the like-minded. It will require
Governor Saakashvili to head it, for he is immensely popular across the nation
and has the political capital, he has a proven track record of reforms (despite
not being democratically inclined), and will propel a large number of democracy
minded reformers into the legislature – and if enough to make him Prime
Minister, then with enough new and uncorrupted MPs to unblock the current
Verkhovna Rada reform constipation – at the expense of all coalition parties
core constituencies, and many sitting MPs.
The question is now not “if”, but “when” the trigger will be pulled and
the party launched?
Will it signal the downfall of Prime Minister Yatseniuk, or be launched
in the immediate aftermath of his fall?
Either way it will be already
formed behind the curtain and ready for swift and nimble responses to any
opportunities that present themselves.
As both informed and ill-informed money seems to suggest Spring 2016 as
the critical juncture for Prime Minister Yatseniuk, then perhaps February/March
would be a reasonable bet for the birth of what will be genuinely a party of
reformers.
Alternatively, consideration may be given to a launch closer to
1st July when the laws
on “On amendments to some legislative acts of Ukraine concerning prevention and
counteraction to political corruption” come into force – for it will provide
yet more ammunition for a political animal like Governor Saakashvili on
campaign mode when talking of other party and parliamentary MP financing.
There seems but only one way to prevent its launch – and that is for the
current legislature to conduct swift and sweeping reforms continuously after
the festive break, thus subduing the constituency demand for reform.
To be entirely blunt, it seems very unlikely that the current Verkhovna
Rada will do that – it is simply too feckless.
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