IN THE six months after a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine was supposed to have taken effect this
year, Russian-backed forces kept up a low-level barrage of sniping and shelling
along the front lines, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers while avoiding
censure from the Western governments that brokered the deal. Then, on
Sept. 1, the guns fell silent — just as Russian forces began streaming
into Syria. For two months, the cease-fire held and international monitors
reported progress in implementing agreements on the withdrawal from the front
lines of heavy weapons.
Now the Russian guns are firing again. In the
past week there have been dozens of incidents daily in which the supposedly
withdrawn weapons, including heavy mortars and Grad rockets, have been fired at
Ukrainian positions. Nine Ukrainian soldiers have
been reported killed. Having proved in September that he could switch off the shooting in
Ukraine when it suited him, Russian President Vladimir Putin has now, at a
minimum, allowed it to resume. It’s a development that Western governments
contemplating an alliance with the Russian ruler in the Middle East cannot
afford to ignore.
Why would Russia have broken the calm in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, where it controls a force of some 40,000
fighters armed with advanced tanks, artillery and electronic warfare systems?
Some Ukrainian officials speculate that Mr. Putin might be seeking to
disrupt free-trade and visa-liberalizationagreements between Ukraine and the European
Union, which are due to take effect shortly. Others believe the military
pressure is meant to induce Ukraine, Germany and France to capitulate to
Moscow’s demands in ongoing negotiations over a political settlement in the
region.
What’s clear is that Mr. Putin has not given up
his objective of restoring Russian control over part or all of Ukraine. He
still seeks to undermine the pro-Western government in Kiev; this week the
Kremlin announced a ban on Ukrainian food imports. Through the peace talks,
Mr. Putin is attempting to force Ukraine to accept the authorities he
installed in the territories captured by Russia and to rewrite the constitution
to give them special powers. Meanwhile, he uses his military forces to probe
and pressure.
Ukrainian officials suspect that
Mr. Putin’s offer to ally with the West in the
Middle East may be part of this game. The price for cooperation with France and the
United States in Syria, they worry, may be concessions on Ukraine — such as the
lifting of E.U. sanctions imposed on
Russia after
its invasion, which will lapse in January if not renewed. European officials
have said the sanctions will remain in effect until the peace agreement, which
calls for Russian forces to withdraw, is fully implemented. But that was before
the terrorist attacks in Paris and French President François Hollande’s
decision to reach out to Mr. Putin.
The resumed shooting by Russian forces in Ukraine does not appear to
have slowed Mr. Hollande’s initiative. It should. If Western governments
ally with Russia in Syria even as its forces attack Ukraine, they will be
tolerating and even encouraging Mr. Putin’s aggression.
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