BY
The local elections are now due to swap from polling
(where carousel voting, duplicate lists, fake exist polls, candidate agitators
etc has been almost blatant, and with Odessa is likely to see at least 30% of
polling stations having irregularities recorded against them by election
minotors prior to the polls closing – plus a transitional period to that of
ballot counting whereupon yet more irregularities will be recorded due to
deliberately slow counting, disappearing electoral commission members (with
mobiles in hand), ballot box stuffing, stop and start counting again, vanishing
ballot boxes, and then when everybody is so tired to pay due attention
diligently, a rapid (and irregular) count is completed providing court-worthy
considerations that may cast a darker and lasting shadow over events – possibly
until 15th November and any second round voting for mayors.
This notwithstanding having gone through almost the entirety of
elections legislation which has been brazenly breached over the past month
during the Odessa campaigning. (No exaggeration.)
One wonders just what is going to appear in the official reports of the
official observers – for this election has been nowhere near the standards of
the presidential, nor Verkhovna Rada elections of 2014.
Indeed it has been so consistently illicit in its nature that it belongs
with elections from a decade past.
Of course the content of the official reports very much depend upon who
actually writes the reports – and equally upon who decides who writes the
reports. So openly dirty, illicit and unambiguously grubby has this
election and the associated campaigning been in comparison to those elections
held last year, there is going to be more than a little room for doubting any
official report that states anything to the contrary. The entire election
campaign in Odessa (and clearly in other regions too) has been an affront to
the rule of law from start – and it seems, to finish.
Yet, somehow, it will be seen to pass the international “official sniff
test” despite the rank odour the campaigning has given off from the very start.
Admittedly, and it is right to note, not all of the recorded
irregularities over the preceding months and today/tomorrow, are irregularities
that would or could change the voting behaviour of the constituency. Nor
effect the ballot counting. Minor irregularities clearly will not sway a
voter or an electoral count, but they are nonetheless irregularities.
Some irregularities certainly will be of that very serious category
however.
Whatever the case, it seems likely that the elections will pass the
“official sniff test” so as not to put (another) hurdle in the way of
decentralisation. (This despite months ago stating it would be incredibly
hard (though not quite impossible) to garner the constitutional majority of
300+ votes to facilitate decrentralisation as the situation stands in the
occupied Donbas anyway.)
As has also been written more than a month ago, the local elections are
a litmus test for populist politicians such as Yulia Tymoshenko.
Depending upon how close to Solidarity her Batkivshchyna Party gets,
ultimately will decide upon her timing for leaving the majority coalition – or
not.
She may decide to stay if she feels she remains too far adrift to gain
anything by forcing an early Verkhovna Rada election.
Certainly the Opposition Block (soon to be Party of Peace and Regional
Development) post local elections will be trying to force a new Verkhovna Rada
election – especially if they can force the decentralisation laws through with
the President’s party, for they are the presumed beneficiaries of any elections
in the currently occupied Donbas for the Verkhovna Rada – The “separatist
parties” simply won’t get reach any national 5% threshold and thus only a few
single mandate, first past the post, seats would be theirs – at best.
Indeed, if and when the occupied Donbas reenters the Ukrainian political
system and economy, it seems extremely unlikely to be accomplished through
Solidarity, Batkivshchyna, or anybody other than the Opposition Block
politically, and Rinat Akhmetov as the largest employer in that region.
(This political and economic reality may helpl explain why both Akhmetov
and Opp Block leader Yuri Boiko remain in circulation rather than in prison –
they may yet prove to be useful.)
Whatever the case in the occupied Donbas, Ms Tymoshenko will try (again)
to leverage her position to Prime Minister on the back of the local election
results either by trying to force a new Verkhovna Rada election (along with the
Opposition Block), or via a Cabinet reshuffle citing her improved societal
vote.
So, let’s play “Pick-a-Prime Minister” with the inevitable demise of
Arseniy Yatseniuk some time next year – probably by the Spring.
Oleksandr Turchynov has a chance if Solidarity successfully assimilates
the National Front and can maintain a majority that can opperate without over
reliance upon other existing coalition partners. To remove a NF prime
minister and reappoint a newly assimilated post-NF prime minister may be
required as part of the assimilation deal.
The above, however, may ultimately lead to the uncomfortable possibility
of a “managed democracy”, in which case Mikheil Saakashvili, Boris Lozhkin,
Ihor Kononenko, and Volodymyr Groysman are all also in the frame post NF
assimilation.
Groysman was Poroshenko’s preferred Prime Minister from the offset.
Kononenko is definitely part of the “grey government” and is very
influential at present. Lozhkin has been making noticeable noises and
shuffles behind the curtain to the point that his ambition to hold the role
seems quite clear – and that would explain why somebody has already tried to
cut that ambition down to size by having Austria now question funds held in
that nation that attributed to Lozhkin. (A smell has now deliberately
been wafted around him that involves Austria and thus the EU to let him know
his limitations.) As for Saakashvili, if Jaresko was interested, he would
have no chance – if he actually has any chance at all (ignoring media hype).
However if the growing gap between Samopomich and an ego driven Yulia
Tymoshenko continues to widen, then there is the option, (particularly if the
reintegration of the occupied Donbas is to occur via an Akhmetov/Opp Block
combination), of a coalition with the Opposition Block. That would put
Serhiy Lyovochkin as a solid candidate for Prime Minister. (Poroshenko’s
Solidarity is not exactly short of ex-Regionaires amongst its ranks after all.)
Alternatively, the oligarchy is now nowhere near as weak and flat-footed
as it was this time last year. A rallying around, for example (choose any
political vehicle) the “Renaissance Party” by Kolomoisky, Lyovochkin, Firtash
(vested interests before political stripe) – and with the fickle and entirely
self-serving Tymoshenko being offered the Prime Minister’s role (and thus
Batkivshchyna cooperation/coalition) would present yet another scenario that is
not beyond the realms of possibility.
Nobody would be surprised that if Tymoshenko became PM in a grubby deal
with the oligarchy, when the relationship with the IMF would sooner (rather
than later) end, no differently than it did last time when she was PM and
Ukraine had an IMF deal. In fact a Tymoshenko PM would see continued
unaffordable subsidies, recaptialisation and bad debt write-offs that fill the
trough from which the oligarchy guzzle with unreserved gluttony.
Being extremely blunt, Ms Tymosehnko would be the worst of all possible
potential candidates listed above for the position of Prime Minister should she
decide, following the local elections litmus test, to try and force her way
into that role one way or another.
Meanwhile, returning to the local elections, we can perhaps try and
guess at the final percentage of ballot stations that will have irregularities
officially recorded against them. The opening paragraph stated at least
30% in Odessa. It is almost guaranteed to be higher, by tomorrow morning,
assuming vote counts have finished, perhaps 35% – 40% will have official
irregularities recorded against them.
Higher than other regions? We will soon see!
No comments:
Post a Comment