By Tom Karst
ATLANTA – Barring natural or man-made disasters,
global trade trends of fruits and vegetables point to increasing exports from
the Americas and rising Asian import volumes.
At an Oct. 23 Fresh Summit workshop
titled "From Here to There: The Intersection of Global Trade and Maritime
Shipping," speaker Andriy Yarmak, economist with the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said the Americas will enjoy the
biggest surge in fresh fruits and vegetable exports, while Asia will become a
more important buyer of global fresh produce. Europe role as a buyer of
fruits and vegetables will “decline significantly,” he said, because of
stagnating consumer demand.
The workshop was moderated by Hunt
Shipman, partner, Cornerstone Government Affairs and also included Marcel Van
Dijk, marketing manager for the port of Los Angeles, Calif., Bill Duggan, line
head for North American Refrigerated Services for Maersk Line and Nelson
Montoya, vice president of logistics and planning for Dole Fresh Fruit
International in Costa Rica.
The panelists said trade deals could
boost movement of fresh produce from the Americas.
“The Trans Pacific Partnership is very
positive for ports,” said Van Dijk of the port of Los Angeles. Lower
tariffs between Asia and the Americas would be good for that trade lane, he
said.
Duggan of Maersk said lower tariffs may
shift the trade flows between countries to benefit lower-cost producing areas,
with the market ultimately deciding how consumers are supplied.
Yarmak said most of the increase in
fresh produce imports over the next ten years will come from Asia, he said.
Asia’s rate of import increases is expected to slow down, however, with gains
primarily driven by growing populations as well as new fruits and vegetables in
the diet, he said. Most significant increases in imports from Asia will come
from India, China and Vietnam. Japan will remain a large importer but volumes
could decline, he said.
Growing market share of developing
countries may require additional investment in distribution networks in those
countries, Yarmak said.
Montoya of Dole said port infrastructure
is a limiting factor for the fresh produce trade in Latin America, with wait
times in some ports as high as 60 hours before loading and unloading.
Van Dijk said infrastructure
improvements are challenging in both developing and developed countries. In the
U.S., he said, time-consuming environmental impact regulations must be
satisfied before any port expansion is approved.
Duggan of Maersk said investment and
collaboration is needed by many ports to grow the capacity of global commerce,
noting that even an expanded Panama Canal will still not serve the largest
cargo ships.
Labor strife can disrupt trade flows,
with the West Coast Port slowdown earlier this year causing some commerce to be
diverted to the East Coast, Duggan said.
Yarmak said Asia will remain the key
source of growth for maritime transportation companies, as most shipments to
those markets use ocean freight.
He said that growing global demand for
berries and other perishable produce could lead to improvements in quality and
freshness-preserving technology.
Responding to a question about the local
food movement and its possible effect on global trade, Yarmak said local food
is still a minor trend in terms of impact on consumers. In addition, Yarmak
said consumers also support sustainable production and helping small growers in
developing countries.
Defining the global trade in fresh
produce, Yarmak said fruits account for 61% of global trade. In the last five
years, the value of global fresh produce trade has grown 4.8% per year for
fruit and 3.9% for vegetables.
Europe is the leading global fresh
produce importer, accounting for more than half of all imports in 2014,
followed by 27% for Asia and 19% for the Americas. Africa and Oceania accounted
for 3% and 1% of produce imports, respectively.
For fresh produce exports by region,
Europe accounted for 33% of global fresh exports, followed by the Americas with
30% and Asia 23%.
In the last five years, Asia imports
have been growing the fastest, while Europe's pace of imports has increased the
slowest. Africa's fresh imports are growing but volumes are still small, Yarmak
said.
Yarmak said Asia will account for 55% of
the share of global projected import growth over the next ten years, followed
by 23% for the Americas and 16% for Africa.
The Americas add the most export value
per year, but Asia's export growth is increasing fast, he said.
Key possible disruptors to global trade
are natural disasters, conflict and political unrest, export/import
restrictions, sudden demand shocks, and terrorism, he said.
Montoya of Dole said late October events
illustrate the challenges shippers routinely face. Rains in Guatemala, the
hurricane in Mexico and a possible strike in Costa Rica are typical challenges
that every global supplier must overcome, he said. Creating a supply base with
a diversity of sourcing options is important to overcome those challenges, he
said.
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