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Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Greece: Agreement on third bailout with revised fiscal and macro targets, host of prior actions

Following an all-night meeting with the quartet of Greece’s lenders, the Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos and Economy Minister Giorgos Stathakis said on Tuesday morning that discussions had been successfully concluded, apart from a couple of details relating to prior actions remain to be settled.

The new macro assumptions reportedly point to a recession of 2.1 to 2.3 percent in 2015 and a milder GDP contraction of 0.5 percent in 2016. The new fiscal targets are now thought to be a primary deficit of 0.25 percent of GDP in 2015 turning to a modest surplus of 0.5 percent in 2016 and accelerating to 1.75 percent in 2017 and to 3.5 percent in 2018.

Kathimerini daily unveiled a list of 35 prior actions that will be probably voted on Thursday. The bulk of those prior actions were included in the latest list sent by the Greek government on July 9.

We present below the key interventions:

1) Gradual elimination of grandfathering to statutory retirement age and early retirement pathways, progressively adapting to the limit of statutory retirement age of 67 years or 62 and 40 years of contributions by 2022. This will be applicable for all those retiring (except arduous professions and mothers with children with disability) with immediate application.


2) Change in the interest rate for tax arrears settlement in 100 instalments and exclusion of those not consistent with current tax obligations. In addition, the government pledges that it will not proceed to other settlement relating to unpaid tax and social security obligations.

3) Comprehensive plan for bank recapitalisation, enhancement of bank liquidity and management of non-performing loans.

4) Change in the single property tax (ENFIA) for 2015 and submission of the relevant tax bills to taxpayers within September.

5) Full evaluation of the social welfare system, targeting annual cost savings of 0.5 percent of GDP.

6) Reforms in the energy market, particularly in gas, leading to full liberalisation of the gas market 2018.

7) Deregulation of professions such as engineers and notaries

8) Approval of the privatization plan undertaken by the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF). Announcement of binding bid dates for the tenders of Piraeus and Thessaloniki ports, while the privatisation of TRAINOSE (operation and management of railway activities) will proceed without any change in the tender terms. The privatization of the regional airports will also proceed under the current terms and the selected bidders. A list of pending privatisations projects will be prepared

9) Implementation of OECD recommendations for product market liberalisation based on its toolkits

10) Abolition of subsidies in the excise on diesel oil for farmers, tightening the definition of what constitutes a farmer and better targeting of eligibility for heating oil subsidies.

11) Increase the rate of the tonnage tax of the shipping industry

12) Reduction in the current 1,500-euro threshold on bank accounts that cannot be seized for unpaid obligations to the tax authorities, social security funds and banks

13) Return to the previous status for drug prescription and reduction on the price of generic drugs

14) Restructuring of Athens Public Transport Organisation (OASA).
The schedule is for the agreement to be submitted to Greek Parliament by Tuesday afternoon so that MPs can vote on it by Thursday.

After that, the Eurogroup is due to meet on Friday and pave the way for other Eurozone parliaments, such as Finland and Germany, to give their approval by August 18.

This would then clear the European Stability Mechanism to release funding before August 20, when Greece has to meet the maturity of a 3.2-billion-euro bond held by the European Central Bank.

Greece is hoping to receive 25 billion euros initially, to cover payments to the ECB and International Monetary Fund in the next few weeks, repay the 7.2 billion euros it received last month as a bridge loan, to reduce state arrears by 2.5 billion euros and to have about 10 billion euros left that could be used for bank recapitalization.

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