The authors of today’s Reuters article nailed it: “Trump's plan for Ukraine comes into focus: NATO off the table and concessions on territory.” This is fantastic—for Trump. And for Putin. For Ukraine, it looks like a nail being hammered into the boarded-up window of opportunity.
But let’s not surrender to despair just yet. A few considerations might punch holes in this bleak geopolitical scenario.
Second, can we really believe that Trump and Putin would find common ground on Ukraine? Trump, the archetypal geo-trader, and Putin, the geopolitical street thug, are fundamentally incompatible. They’re cut from different stripes of monstrosity. A trader and a thug deciding Ukraine’s fate? Even Kafka would balk at that absurdity.
Putin, nostalgic for empire and inspired by Poland’s partitions of centuries past, dangles the dream of Transcarpathia to Orban. The irony of Orban playing shuttle diplomacy, Carter-style, is almost too much. Where is Jimmy Carter, and where is Orban?
Then there’s Trump, the self-styled alpha male, strutting his ego across the geopolitical stage with the absurd promise to end the war in a single day. Donald, the Mighty! If only life were as simple as reality TV ratings.
it seems unlikely that Trump and Putin will be able to come to a compromise solution on Ukraine. Trump, as a person who implements the principles of trade in geopolitics, which in itself is already monstrous, and Putin, who implements the principles of a petty hooligan in the same geopolitics, which is even more monstrous, will not be able to agree in principle. A trader and a thug will decide the fate of Ukraine? I refuse to believe it.
The so-called plan? It’s as flawed as it is familiar. Trump would arm Ukraine but demand peace talks. If Russia rejects the talks, he’d double down on aid to Ukraine. NATO membership? Put on ice. And then come the “security guarantees”—those mythical carrots dangled before Ukraine, echoing the Budapest Memorandum that promised much and delivered nothing.
Just as a thousand white rabbits will never produce a white horse, a thousand similar plans will never produce a peace treaty.
Here’s reality: Russia controls Crimea, most of Donbas, large swathes of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and slivers of Mykolaiv and Kharkiv. Meanwhile, Ukraine holds pieces of Russia’s Kursk region. How’s that for a demarcation line?
Experts talk endlessly about the situation on the ground. But the deeper truth lies in the hearts and minds of Ukrainians and Russians—pure, unfiltered antagonism. For both sides, the other’s existence is an existential threat.
Europe and NATO, thankfully, aren’t buying Trump’s bargain-bin approach. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is spearheading renewed arms support for Ukraine, and European leaders are rallying behind Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership.
So, is lasting peace with Russia possible? Yes—but only under one of two conditions: Ukraine’s full NATO membership or a return to nuclear status. Anything less is just a duet on the political piano by Trump and Putin.
And no, Ukraine isn’t for sale.
Glory to Ukraine!
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