Russia and Ukraine have been fighting for several years on land, but the two clashed at sea recently. How likely is this maritime conflict to escalate?
Maritime disputes feature prominently in global politics. China’s maritime conflicts with neighboring states over the Senkaku/Diaoyu, Spratly, Paracels and other small islands and reefs have generated over a dozen militarized clashes at sea since 1991. Confrontations in the Kerch Strait between Russia and Ukraine on Nov. 25 and the imposition of limited martial law in Ukraine create similar concerns about escalation of the situation to war.
There are several diplomatic issues at stake in the Russia-Ukraine relationship, and understanding these points of contention can help clarify the escalation risks. Our research shows that maritime disputes connected to territorial and identity issues face higher risks of war.
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