WASHINGTON — In a sign that the tense crisis in Ukraine could soon escalate, Russia has continued to deploy air defense systems in eastern Ukraine and
has built up its forces near the border, American officials said on Wednesday.
Western officials are not sure if the military moves are preparations for a
new Russian-backed offensive that would be intended to help the separatists
seize additional territory.
Some analysts say that President Vladimir V. Putin may not want to act before the European Union reassesses in June whether to ease or keep the economic sanctions it
has imposed on Russia because of its annexation of Crimea and intervention in
eastern Ukraine. Others say it is possible that Russia is making the moves to
increase the pressure on the Ukrainian government to make concessions to the
separatists on political and constitutional issues.
Either way, the new military activity is a major concern because it has
significantly reduced the amount of warning that Ukraine and its Western
supporters would have if Russian forces and separatists mounted a joint
offensive. And some of Russia’s actions, American officials say, are flagrant
violations of the cease-fire agreement that European nations
negotiated with Russia and Ukraine in February.
“This is the highest amount of Russian air defense equipment in eastern
Ukraine since August,” Marie Harf, the State Department spokeswoman, said in a
statement. “Combined Russian-separatist forces continue to violate the terms of
the ‘Minsk 2’ agreement signed in mid-February.”
In recent weeks, the war of words over Ukraine has intensified. Last week,
Russia charged that a modest program to train Ukraine’s
national guardthat 300 American troops are carrying out in western
Ukraine could “destabilize the situation.”
To respond to this and other Russian allegations, the Obama administration
declassified intelligence describing a range of Russian military activities in
and near Ukraine, which was included in Ms. Harf’s statement.
Some of the Russian military’s air defense systems in Ukraine have been
moved closer to the front lines, her statement noted. The Russian military and
separatists have also kept substantial communications and other “command and
control” equipment in eastern Ukraine that would be needed to organize an
attack.
In addition, the Russian military has been providing extensive training for
separatists in eastern Ukraine. Western officials said such training might
indicate that the Russian military was looking to play a less obvious role and
avoid a possible expansion of sanctions should hostilities resume.
The use of Russian reconnaissance drones in the training exercises “leaves
no doubt that Russia is involved in the training,” Ms. Harf’s statement said.
Even as it has been training the separatists, the Russian military has been
engaged in a buildup near Russia’s border with Ukraine.
“After maintaining a relatively steady presence along the border, Russia is
sending additional units there,” Ms. Harf’s statement said. “These forces will
give Russia its largest presence on the border since October 2014.”
The State Department did not say how many Russian troops were arrayed on
the border, including near the Russian city of Belgorod. But one Western
official, who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence
reports, said Russia had moved 12 battalion tactical groups close to the
border. The number of troops in such units can vary, but a battalion could have
about 1,000 troops.
The cease-fire agreement that was negotiated in February in Minsk, Belarus,
was supposed to ease political tensions and put an end to the bitter conflict.
Germany and France negotiated that accord with Russia and Ukraine. It called
for the pulling back of heavy weapons, the removal of foreign forces and the
disarming of “illegal groups.”
The Obama administration did not send an official to those talks, but it
was in close touch with European officials when the agreement was being
negotiated.
“Combined Russian-separatist forces maintain a sizable number of artillery
pieces and multiple rocket launchers within areas prohibited under the Minsk
accords,” Ms. Harf’s statement said. “Russia has continued to ship heavy
weapons into eastern Ukraine.”
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