By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG and NICHOLAS VINOCUR
Both leaders hold impressive academic credentials, are
childless, enjoy hiking and rose to top of male-dominated conservative parties.
But Brexit will divide them.
If nothing else, Theresa May’s
emergence Monday as the U.K.’s next leader gives Europe much of the clarity it
has demanded in the wake of the Brexit referendum.
Just don’t expect anyone in
Paris, Brussels or Berlin to break out the champagne.
While many officials regard
May, who supported the Remain camp, as the lesser of the various evils that
could have emerged from the Tory leadership contest, they see little chance of
Brexit being reversed once she takes control.
The incoming prime minister
doused whatever remaining hopes there were for such an outcome Monday morning
with her declaration that “Brexit means Brexit.”
“There will be no attempts to
remain inside the EU. We must leave the European Union and forge a new role for
ourselves in the world,” May said in a speech delivered just hours before her
remaining rival withdrew from the race, clearing the way for May to become
prime minister this week.
Most of the EU’s key leaders had already come to terms
with that reality. However, a bigger question on their minds than ‘whether’ is
‘when.’ That is, when will the U.K. invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to
set in motion the process of withdrawal?
Brussels, in particular, is eager to press forward in
order to settle the issue of the U.K.’s status, uncertainty some worry could
paralyze the bloc’s ability to function.
May offered no specifics on timing but the stridency
of her remarks suggested she’s not eager to wait.
At the core of the waiting game is the question of
what kind of post-Brexit arrangement the U.K. will have with the EU. European
leaders have insisted repeatedly in recent weeks that talks over allowing the
U.K. access to the EU’s common market can only begin after the two-year divorce
procedure has been completed.
Pastors’ daughters
May’s first challenge as prime minister will be to
soften the EU’s resistance to a more universal deal. U.K. officials are likely
hoping German leader Angela Merkel will help grease those skids.
Media in both countries have focused on the unlikely
parallels between the two women.
Roughly the same age, both are daughters of protestant
pastors and grew up outside the glare of the big city. They both have
impressive academic credentials, are childless and said to enjoy hiking with
and cooking for husbands they’ve been wed to for decades.
Behind their austere official persona lies a sharp
wit, rarely seen by either the public or the press, for which they share a deep
distrust. Each has a reputation for putting pragmatism ahead of ideology.
The most important similarity of all, however, is the
most obvious: Both succeeded in climbing to the top of male-dominated
conservative institutions in an age when such ascents for women of their
generation remain rare.
Still, whatever personal sympathy Merkel may harbor
for new British counterpart will be tempered by the necessity of maintaining
consensus among Germany’s key EU allies, especially France.
Germany, which sells more cars to the U.K. than to any
other country, has
no shortage of economic arguments for finding an
amicable solution that would keep Britain in the single market.
France’s Socialist leaders are likely to be less
accommodating.
French connection
President François Hollande, who is doing his best to
rein in Euroskeptic forces at home, warned after Britain’s vote to leave that
the country would face consequences for its decision.
For now, there is little need to attack Britain
publicly — financial markets and political turmoil are providing all the
ammunition French Europhiles need to argue against leaving the EU.
In addition to their desire to make an example of the
U.K. for other would-be exiters, French leaders also want to benefit from
Brexit by luring City of London bankers to Paris.
Yet Europe’s leaders also realize the risks of backing
the U.K. into a corner. If May doesn’t succeed in securing an attractive deal
for the U.K., whoever replaces her could be much less to the EU’s liking. Given
the deep economic and security ties between the countries, a disorderly Brexit
is the last thing anyone wants.
U.S. President Barack Obama raised those concerns with
EU leaders at meeting in Warsaw on Friday. Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker, who is not known for taking a soft line on the Brexit question, took
pains to reassure the American president, saying the talks wouldn’t be “hostile.”
“It’s in our interest and the global interest to keep
Britain as a strong ally,” Juncker said at a press conference with Obama after
their meeting.
May’s biggest obstacle in dealing with EU leaders is
that few know her. As the U.K.’s home secretary, she has had little exposure to
key figures such as Hollande and Merkel.
To the degree May is known in France and Germany, it
is for being tough on immigration — an area where May’s approach diverges
sharply from Merkel’s.
May did get to know French Prime Minister Manuel
Valls, having dealt with him when he was interior minister on the issue of
migrants heading to Britain from France, where thousands live in makeshift
camps in the port city of Calais.
“Valls knows her well,” said a French government
official. “They have a lot of respect for each other.”
The response of a Socialist French MP heavily involved
in EU affairs was more typical. Asked what he thought about May, he responded:
“Nothing. She’s British conservative, I don’t know much more.”
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