David Stern
The prime minister’s announced resignation sets the stage for a new government to take over in Kiev as soon as Tuesday.
The prime minister’s announced
resignation sets the stage for a new government to take over in Kiev as soon as
Tuesday.
KIEV — Ukraine’s political
turmoil claimed deeply unpopular Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who
announced Sunday he is resigning, but the country’s volatility likely won’t end
soon.
Yatsenyuk said he would submit
his resignation for parliament’s approval Tuesday. Other sources said the
formation of a new coalition could be announced at the same time, and deputies
might vote Volodymyr Groysman, the current parliament speaker, as the
successor.
It’s not clear what will
transpire in parliament it’s time to vote. Until now, Yatsenyuk has managed to
hold onto his position thanks in part to the backing of MPs associated with
some of the country’s richest men, including steel baron Rinat Akhmetov.
The oligarchs may have decided
that it’s best to have him to step down, but its unclear what, if any,
arrangement they have reached with President Petro Poroshenko.
“I don’t know what’s being
discussed. These conversations are taking place in a very small circle,” said
Svitlana Zalishchuk, an MP with Porosheko’s parliamentary bloc. “But from what
I understand, they have the necessary number of votes, otherwise the prime
minister wouldn’t submit his resignation.”
The government that replaces
Yatsenyuk may be equally unstable. Reports indicate a new ruling coalition would
consist of just two parties — the president’s bloc and Yatsenyuk’s People’s
Front — with a number of unaffiliated deputies added to reach a majority
226-vote.
Such a coalition could prove
to be highly volatile, some analysts warned, and would require new and intense
negotiations for each major vote.
Concerns also persist that by
making Groysman the head of government, too much power would be concentrated in
the president’s hands.
Others say that from now on
Poroshenko would be responsible for the success, or failure, of the
government’s actions. And he alone would face any displeasure from Ukrainian
voters, if promised reforms failed.
Any prolongation of the crisis
could jeopardize billions of dollars in financial support Ukraine needs to
stave off a financial crisis. Ukraine’s western backers are increasingly
frustrated with the country’s chronic political infighting. IMF officials in
particular cannot sign off on any fresh loans to the country until they are
satisfied that a pro-reform government is firmly in place.
Western backing appears to be
increasingly fragile, following last week’s Dutch referendum vote against the
EU-Ukraine free trade agreement that went into force at the beginning of the
year.
The positions of Poroshenko
and Yatsenyuk are particularly weak, and both men want to avoid a complete
breakdown of the coalition. That would lead to early parliamentary elections,
in which they both would probably suffer electoral losses.
The president in particular
received a further political blow last week, when the release of the Panama
Papers revealed he had set up an offshore company, which his opponents said he
was using to protect his fortune.
Conversely, other players,
including Yulia Tymoshenko, the former prime minister who has seen a leap in
her popularity, are pushing for early elections.
Ukraine’s latest political
crisis began in mid-February, when deputies failed to muster enough votes to
force out the increasingly unpopular Yatsenyuk through a no-confidence vote.
Since then, the business of
government has ground to a standstill, as coalition parties have refused to
back Yatsenyuk, while deputies have been unable to agree on a compromise
candidate to replace him.
Yatsenyuk seemed resolved in
announcing his intention to step down. Still he struck a defiant note.
“The political crisis in the
country was created artificially,” he said. “The desire to change one person
blinded politicians and paralyzed their political will for real change … The
process of changing the government turned into a mindless running in place.”
He also highlighted the stakes
involved, citing the conflict against Russian-backed insurgents in the
country’s east, which has once again escalated sharply.
“We can’t allow
destabilization of executive branch during a war,” he tweeted after announcing
that he was going to leave.
No comments:
Post a Comment