BY
Though it is tempting to forget Ukraine for the
day and comment upon the now published Livinenko public inquiry in the UK, and
mull what, if any, UK response will be forthcoming to an inquiry that publicly
announced what everybody has already believed for nearly a decade, the blog
will stick to home turf.
Thus one of many statements from Davos will be
plucked from a multitude of possibilities.
The chosen statement comes from
Christine LaGrarde which
indicates that the next IMF tranche to Ukraine seems very likely to appear at
the beginning of February.
The significance this time goes beyond the
macroeconomics of the Ukrainian nation.
It has long been quite obvious that despite the
imminent Cabinet reshuffle having been muted as long ago as the Autumn of 2015,
the political thinking has deemed it necessary to firstly secure the IMF
tranche – just in case the reshuffle has unintended and destabilising
consequences for the dysfunctional coalition beyond that expected among the
Ukrainian establishment.
Hence the “when”, the “outs” and the “ins”, the
“possibles”, the “probables”, the “improbables”, the “scope”, the “depth”, and
the overly proclaimed “difficulties” in arriving at “suitable candidates” –
also known as stalling. IMF funds first, reshuffle thereafter, and then
deal with any expected or unexpected fallout over the coming weeks and months
when the new Cabinet is unveiled.
Thus, once the IMF funds safely arrive, it will
come as no surprise if suddenly, and as if by magic, a sudden focus and swift
implementation of the reshuffle occurs – but a reshuffle that will remain
“problematic/difficult” for “internal coalition reasons” until the funds
arrive.
The domestic political timetable therefore, is
IMF tranche early February, Cabinet reshuffle accomplished within a fortnight
of the funds arriving, and sometime after that, perhaps a return to the reform
agenda?
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